Houston vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 0:24TLSAPetera Wilson Jr. 3 Yd Fumble Return (Redford Jones Kick)17–45
- Q4 0:35TLSAShamari Brooks 5 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)17–38
- Q4 9:52TLSAKeenen Johnson 70 Yd pass from Luke Skipper (Redford Jones Kick)17–31
- Q4 11:32HOUDillon Birden 24 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)17–24
- Q3 0:00TLSAD'Angelo Brewer 46 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)10–24
- Q3 2:48TLSAChad President 2 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)10–17
- Q3 3:51TLSARedford Jones 23 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 4:34TLSAChad President 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:58HOUDuke Catalon 1 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)10–0
- Q1 0:49HOUCaden Novikoff 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassKyle Postma 25/41, 258 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDillon Birden 11 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSteven Dunbar Jr. 10 REC, 107 YDS
- PassLuke Skipper 9/18, 128 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushD'Angelo Brewer 23 CAR, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeenen Johnson 5 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:48TLSA +30%
Chad President run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q4 9:52TLSA +29%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 70 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q3 0:00TLSA +19%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 46 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q4 11:32HOU +19%
Dillon Birden run for 24 yds for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
- Q2 4:34TLSA +16%
Chad President run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q2 11:58HOU +14%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Novikoff KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Tulsa?
Houston 17, Tulsa 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 404 | Total yards | 416 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 128 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 288 |
| 25 | First downs | 21 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/41 | Comp/Att | 9/18 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-36 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 32:01 | Possession | 27:59 |
Costliest call
Q1 14:00 HOU punt on 4th & 6 at TLSA 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:24TLSAPetera Wilson Jr. 3 Yd Fumble Return (Redford Jones Kick)17–45
- Q4 0:35TLSAShamari Brooks 5 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)17–38
- Q4 9:52TLSAKeenen Johnson 70 Yd pass from Luke Skipper (Redford Jones Kick)17–31
- Q4 11:32HOUDillon Birden 24 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)17–24
- Q3 0:00TLSAD'Angelo Brewer 46 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)10–24
- Q3 2:48TLSAChad President 2 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)10–17
- Q3 3:51TLSARedford Jones 23 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 4:34TLSAChad President 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:58HOUDuke Catalon 1 Yd Run (Caden Novikoff Kick)10–0
- Q1 0:49HOUCaden Novikoff 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1441, HOU Elo 1679 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +7.1 (33% to win) — 6.4 points clear of TLSA's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #22 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Houston leads 26–20 · 33% have been one-possession games
| HOU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#50) | CORE overall | -18.6 (#117) |
| -1 / -6 | offense / defense | -4 / +14 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 3.04 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →