TCU vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsBAY
- Q4 3:48TCUSewo Olonilua 26 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)62–22
- Q4 9:53TCUKyle Hicks 3 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)55–22
- Q4 13:41BAYSeth Russell 2 Yd Run (Seth Russell Pass to Pooh Stricklin for Two-Point Conversion)48–22
- Q3 0:44TCUBrandon Hatfield 39 Yd Field Goal 48–14
- Q3 13:13TCUKyle Hicks 18 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)45–14
- Q2 0:07TCUKyle Hicks 3 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)38–14
- Q2 2:29BAYSeth Russell 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)31–14
- Q2 10:37TCURanthony Texada 28 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Hatfield Kick)31–7
- Q2 10:44TCUKyle Hicks 22 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)24–7
- Q2 14:55TCUKyle Hicks 6 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)17–7
- Q1 5:36TCUBrandon Hatfield 26 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 14:04TCUTaj Williams 37 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Brandon Hatfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:38BAYIshmael Zamora 81 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKenny Hill 17/30, 244 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKyle Hicks 26 CAR, 192 YDS, 5 TD
- RecJaelan Austin 3 REC, 57 YDS
- PassSeth Russell 22/42, 282 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerence Williams 18 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecIshmael Zamora 7 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:55TCU +21%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
- Q2 10:44TCU +18%
Kyle Hicks run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
- Q1 14:04TCU +14%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Taj Williams for 37 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
- Q1 14:38BAY +13%
Seth Russell pass complete to Ishmael Zamora for 81 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q2 10:37TCU +10%
Seth Russell pass intercepted for a TD Ranthony Texada return for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
- Q2 0:07TCU +10%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. Baylor?
TCU 62, Baylor 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TCU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 688 | Total yards | 415 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 282 |
| 431 | Rushing yards | 133 |
| 34 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 5-20 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 5-6 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 22/43 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 11-121 |
| 35:39 | Possession | 24:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:16 TCU punt on 4th & 7 at BAY 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:48TCUSewo Olonilua 26 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)62–22
- Q4 9:53TCUKyle Hicks 3 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)55–22
- Q4 13:41BAYSeth Russell 2 Yd Run (Seth Russell Pass to Pooh Stricklin for Two-Point Conversion)48–22
- Q3 0:44TCUBrandon Hatfield 39 Yd Field Goal 48–14
- Q3 13:13TCUKyle Hicks 18 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)45–14
- Q2 0:07TCUKyle Hicks 3 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)38–14
- Q2 2:29BAYSeth Russell 2 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)31–14
- Q2 10:37TCURanthony Texada 28 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Hatfield Kick)31–7
- Q2 10:44TCUKyle Hicks 22 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)24–7
- Q2 14:55TCUKyle Hicks 6 Yd Run (Brandon Hatfield Kick)17–7
- Q1 5:36TCUBrandon Hatfield 26 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 14:04TCUTaj Williams 37 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Brandon Hatfield Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:38BAYIshmael Zamora 81 Yd pass from Seth Russell (Chris Callahan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1845, TCU Elo 1701 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #70 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #19 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →TCU leads 60–50–5 · 43% have been one-possession games
| TCU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.4 (#45) | CORE overall | +8.9 (#33) |
| -2 / -7 | offense / defense | +4 / -5 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →