Nebraska vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEBTeam statsPUR
- Q4 0:30NEBJordan Westerkamp 35 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown Kick)45–55
- Q4 1:02PURMarkell Jones 8 Yd Run (Paul Griggs PAT blocked)38–55
- Q4 3:27NEBBrandon Reilly 8 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown Kick)38–49
- Q4 5:51PURMarkell Jones 6 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)31–49
- Q4 11:39NEBAndy Janovich 1 Yd Run (Ryker Fyfe Pass to Jordan Westerkamp for Two-Point Conversion)31–42
- Q4 14:56NEBLane Hovey 17 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown Kick)23–42
- Q3 2:34PURDeAngelo Yancey 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)16–42
- Q3 5:19PURDeAngelo Yancey 83 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)16–35
- Q3 7:42PURJordan Jurasevich 5 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)16–28
- Q3 12:04NEBImani Cross 9 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick)16–21
- Q2 4:12PURDomonique Young 4 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)9–21
- Q2 11:52NEBStanley Morgan Jr. 20 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown PAT blocked)9–14
- Q2 13:48PURDanny Anthrop 3 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:06PURDavid Blough 56 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:53NEBDrew Brown 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassRyker Fyfe 29/48, 407 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
- RushTerrell Newby 10 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecJordan Westerkamp 9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDavid Blough 28/43, 274 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMarkell Jones 23 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDeAngelo Yancey 5 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:42PUR +31%
David Blough pass complete to Jordan Jurasevich for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
- Q3 5:19PUR +25%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 83 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
- Q2 4:12PUR +24%
Domonique Young run for 4 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
- Q3 12:04NEB +22%
Imani Cross run for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
- Q2 13:48PUR +20%
David Blough pass complete to Danny Anthrop for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Griggs KICK)
- Q2 11:52NEB +16%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown PAT BLOCKED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Nebraska vs. Purdue?
Nebraska 45, Purdue 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NEB | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 484 | Total yards | 457 |
| 407 | Passing yards | 274 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 28 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 29/48 | Comp/Att | 28/43 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-40 | Penalties | 6-58 |
| 29:35 | Possession | 30:25 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:12 NEB punt on 4th & 1 at NEB 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:30NEBJordan Westerkamp 35 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown Kick)45–55
- Q4 1:02PURMarkell Jones 8 Yd Run (Paul Griggs PAT blocked)38–55
- Q4 3:27NEBBrandon Reilly 8 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown Kick)38–49
- Q4 5:51PURMarkell Jones 6 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)31–49
- Q4 11:39NEBAndy Janovich 1 Yd Run (Ryker Fyfe Pass to Jordan Westerkamp for Two-Point Conversion)31–42
- Q4 14:56NEBLane Hovey 17 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown Kick)23–42
- Q3 2:34PURDeAngelo Yancey 9 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)16–42
- Q3 5:19PURDeAngelo Yancey 83 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)16–35
- Q3 7:42PURJordan Jurasevich 5 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)16–28
- Q3 12:04NEBImani Cross 9 Yd Run (Drew Brown Kick)16–21
- Q2 4:12PURDomonique Young 4 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)9–21
- Q2 11:52NEBStanley Morgan Jr. 20 Yd pass from Ryker Fyfe (Drew Brown PAT blocked)9–14
- Q2 13:48PURDanny Anthrop 3 Yd pass from David Blough (Paul Griggs Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:06PURDavid Blough 56 Yd Run (Paul Griggs Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:53NEBDrew Brown 41 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1273, NEB Elo 1736 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +16.1 (16% to win) — 7.6 points clear of NEB's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #41 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Nebraska leads 7–6 · Nebraska has won 2 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| NEB | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#51) | CORE overall | -15.4 (#103) |
| +6 / +0 | offense / defense | -6 / +9 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.55 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.81 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →