Oregon vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsOSU
- Q4 0:28OSUEzekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)20–42
- Q4 9:44OSUEzekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)20–35
- Q3 0:00OSUEzekiel Elliott 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)20–28
- Q3 6:39OREAidan Schneider 23 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 11:23OREByron Marshall 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:48OREAidan Schneider 26 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 4:49OSUCardale Jones 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:08OSUNick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:36OSUEzekiel Elliott 33 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:21OREKeanon Lowe 7 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 5.3
- ORE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassMarcus Mariota 24/37, 333 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushThomas Tyner 12 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecByron Marshall 8 REC, 169 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCardale Jones 16/23, 242 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushEzekiel Elliott 36 CAR, 246 YDS, 4 TD
- RecCorey Smith 2 REC, 76 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:00OSU +26%
Ezekiel Elliott 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q3 11:23ORE +24%
Byron Marshall 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)
- Q1 1:08OSU +19%
Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q1 4:36OSU +19%
Ezekiel Elliott 33 Yd Run, OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Burger) to the Oregn 13 (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q2 4:49OSU +14%
Cardale Jones 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
- Q3 6:39ORE +12%
Aidan Schneider 23 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Ohio State?
Oregon 20, Ohio State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| ORE | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Total yards | 538 |
| 333 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 132 | Rushing yards | 296 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 24/38 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 10-76 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 22:31 | Possession | 37:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:52 ORE punt on 4th & 3 at ORE 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:28OSUEzekiel Elliott 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)20–42
- Q4 9:44OSUEzekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)20–35
- Q3 0:00OSUEzekiel Elliott 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)20–28
- Q3 6:39OREAidan Schneider 23 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 11:23OREByron Marshall 70 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)17–21
- Q2 0:48OREAidan Schneider 26 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 4:49OSUCardale Jones 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:08OSUNick Vannett 1 Yd pass from Cardale Jones (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:36OSUEzekiel Elliott 33 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:21OREKeanon Lowe 7 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Aidan Schneider Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2241, ORE Elo 2212 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects OSU -1.2 (54% to win) — 7.7 points clear of OSU's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #65 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Ohio State leads 10–2 · 25% have been one-possession games
| ORE | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.63 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 1.45 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 18% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →