#2Will Rogers

QB·Mississippi State·2022 20218.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Will Rogers is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Mississippi State. Will's 2021 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 678 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Will Rogers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

505/683 Comp/Att4739 Pass yards36 Pass TD9 INT73.9% Comp %

Rushing

-97 Rush yards0 Rush TD62 Carries-1.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency78
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Tennessee State.

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsLouisiana Tech	W35-34	-11.6	39/47	370	3	1	40.8	-18	0	0.44
2	vsNC State	W24-10	16.1	33/49	294	2	0	77.7	-5	0	0.41
3	@Memphis	L29-31	1.0	50/67	419	3	0	64.7	-6	0	0.25
4	vsLSU	L25-28	4.1	47/62	371	3	1	75.2	18	0	0.23
5	@Texas A&M	W26-22	21.1	46/59	408	3	0	93.1	5	0	0.31
7	vsAlabama	L9-49	26.0	35/55	300	0	3	44.4	-41	0	-0.16
8	@Vanderbilt	W45-6	-19.4	41/57	384	4	2	69.4	-13	0	0.52
9	vsKentucky	W31-17	13.4	36/39	344	1	0	87.8	-5	0	0.66
10	@Arkansas	L28-31	13.8	36/48	417	4	1	87.3	-2	0	0.47
11	@Auburn	W43-34	11.0	44/55	415	6	0	90.7	-7	0	0.47
12	vsTennessee State	W55-10	—	28/34	391	5	0	94.2	—	—	0.79
13	vsOle Miss	L21-31	14.8	38/58	336	1	0	54.3	4	0	0.09
1	vsTexas Tech	L7-34	9.8	32/53	290	1	1	34.6	-27	0	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

74.4%

Passing plays

94.7%

Rushing plays

12.6%

Standard downs

69.3%

Passing downs

87.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / -0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Mississippi State	8.5	0.460	—	318.8
2022	Mississippi State	7.4	0.420	-0.04	260.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.