#9Star Thomas

RB·Tennessee·2025

Star Thomas is a Explosive Back for Tennessee. Star's 2025 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 108 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Star Thomas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

596 Rush yards7 Rush TD104 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions116 Rec yards2 Rec TD10.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency98
Volume35
Explosiveness54
Consistency73
Receiving43

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs UAB (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSyracuse	W45-26	-13.1	12	92	7.7	0	1	7	1	0.47
2	vsEast Tennessee State	W72-17	—	12	69	5.8	3	—	—	—	0.59
3	vsGeorgia	L41-44	24.1	9	60	6.7	0	—	—	—	0.41
4	vsUAB	W56-24	-15.8	9	51	5.7	1	1	17	1	0.70
5	@Mississippi State	W41-34	4.1	10	33	3.3	0	3	29	0	0.10
7	vsArkansas	W34-31	5.1	10	23	2.3	0	1	5	0	-0.30
8	@Alabama	L20-37	14.8	3	26	8.7	0	—	—	—	0.46
9	@Kentucky	W56-34	1.8	10	64	6.4	1	—	—	—	0.33
10	vsOklahoma	L27-33	18.3	5	10	2.0	0	2	19	0	0.18
12	vsNew Mexico State	W42-9	-15.5	5	30	6.0	1	1	12	0	0.30
13	@Florida	W31-11	3.5	9	71	7.9	1	—	—	—	0.53
14	vsVanderbilt	L24-45	20.3	1	0	0.0	0	1	9	0	-0.05
20	vsIllinois	L28-30	12.9	9	67	7.4	0	1	18	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.3%

Passing plays

2.9%

Rushing plays

21.8%

Standard downs

13.5%

Passing downs

8.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.84
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.92 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).