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Samaje Perine

#32Samaje Perine

RB·Oklahoma·2016201520143.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Samaje Perine is a 3-year Explosive Back for Oklahoma. Samaje's 2015 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 237 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Samaje Perine's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

4-Star · High major target
Stars
247 composite
0.9070
National rank
#249
High school
Hendrickson
Hometown
Pflugerville, TX

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2015 Production

Rushing
1349 Rush yards16 Rush TD226 Carries6.0 Yards/carry
Receiving
15 Receptions107 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency53
  • Volume68
  • Explosiveness60
  • Consistency58
  • Receiving31
Player type
Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average
Career trajectory:↓ Declining
Key findings
  • Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.
  • Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Texas Tech (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Saquon BarkleyPenn State0.3403.997.9
Dalvin CookFlorida State0.3404.399.3
James FlandersTulsa0.3904.9103.7
Hassan HaskinsMichigan0.3804.8106.4
Royce FreemanOregon0.3605.199.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.7300.73Wk 1 vs Akron: +0.12 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Tennessee: +0.11 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Tulsa: +0.16 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs West Virginia: -0.32 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Texas: +0.21 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Kansas State: +0.07 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Texas Tech: +0.73 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Kansas: +0.32 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Iowa State: +0.07 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Baylor: +0.00 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs TCU: +0.26 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Oklahoma State: +0.25 EPA/play13Wk 1 vs Clemson: +0.10 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsAkronW41-3-0.811333.012900.12
2@TennesseeW31-2419.523783.403510.11
3vsTulsaW52-38-8.5221526.911300.16
5vsWest VirginiaW44-2412.916654.10150-0.32
6vsTexasL17-243.710363.610.21
7@Kansas StateW55-02.611565.1022000.07
8vsTexas TechW63-274.5232018.741900.73
9@KansasW62-7-21.311908.220.32
10vsIowa StateW52-16-0.313957.310.07
11@BaylorW44-3419.5281665.921600.00
12vsTCUW30-2919.0261887.2111600.26
13@Oklahoma StateW58-239.9171317.7211100.25
1vsClemsonL17-3724.015583.9122300.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
23.8%
Passing plays
4.0%
Rushing plays
42.2%
Standard downs
27.2%
Passing downs
15.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.17
Passing downs
0.29
Pass / Rush EPA
0.34 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+1.070−0.4520152016
EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 36 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2014Oklahoma
6.8
121.3
2015Oklahoma
3.7
76.8
2016Oklahoma
3.0
70.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.