#14Sam Darnold

QB·USC·2017 201610.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Darnold is a 2-year Clutch Passer for USC. Sam's 2017 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 554 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Darnold's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

303/480 Comp/Att4143 Pass yards26 Pass TD13 INT63.1% Comp %

Rushing

82 Rush yards5 Rush TD75 Carries1.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Dual-Threat50
Consistency84
Clutch74

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Stanford (SP+ 16).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Michigan	W49-31	-2.4	23/33	289	0	2	71.0	-6	1	0.33
2	vsStanford	W42-24	15.8	21/26	316	4	2	95.8	4	0	0.83
3	vsTexas	W27-24	10.6	28/49	397	3	2	54.1	-12	0	0.35
4	@California	W30-20	-1.0	26/38	223	2	1	60.5	14	0	0.19
5	@Washington State	L27-30	8.6	15/29	164	0	1	37.6	25	2	0.25
6	vsOregon State	W38-10	-12.6	23/35	316	3	1	67.0	-18	0	0.34
7	vsUtah	W28-27	12.0	27/50	358	3	0	50.9	15	0	0.26
8	@Notre Dame	L14-49	20.8	20/28	229	2	1	53.0	7	0	0.33
9	@Arizona State	W48-17	1.0	19/35	266	3	0	75.2	19	0	0.31
10	vsArizona	W49-35	3.7	20/26	311	2	1	—	10	0	0.58
11	@Colorado	W38-24	2.0	21/34	329	2	0	87.3	31	1	0.61
12	vsUCLA	W28-23	4.9	17/28	264	0	1	74.3	10	1	0.35
14	vsStanford	W31-28	15.8	17/24	325	2	0	94.5	1	0	0.80
1	vsOhio State	L7-24	30.9	26/45	356	0	1	35.0	-18	0	0.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.2%

Passing plays

97.5%

Rushing plays

9.9%

Standard downs

43.3%

Passing downs

75.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	USC	13.4	0.627	—	290.5
2017	USC	10.9	0.509	-0.12	301.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.