#14Sam Darnold

QB·USC·2017 201613.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Darnold is a 2-year Clutch Passer for USC. Sam's 2016 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 403 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Darnold's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

246/366 Comp/Att3086 Pass yards31 Pass TD9 INT67.2% Comp %

Rushing

250 Rush yards2 Rush TD62 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency83
Volume100
Dual-Threat38
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (83th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Utah State (SP+ -4).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama	L6-52	31.7	4/8	29	0	0	11.8	9	0	-0.14
2	vsUtah State	W45-7	-4.4	5/7	62	2	0	93.5	3	0	0.78
3	@Stanford	L10-27	16.4	5/7	45	0	1	35.9	—	—	-0.26
4	@Utah	L27-31	10.9	18/26	253	0	0	83.5	41	1	0.46
5	vsArizona State	W41-20	-3.0	23/33	352	3	0	93.3	8	1	0.67
6	vsColorado	W21-17	6.3	25/37	358	3	1	71.3	22	0	0.46
7	@Arizona	W48-14	-4.5	20/32	235	5	0	94.0	54	0	0.63
9	vsCalifornia	W45-24	2.4	18/25	231	5	1	74.4	12	0	0.52
10	vsOregon	W45-20	6.1	28/40	309	2	1	72.6	23	0	0.56
11	@Washington	W26-13	26.7	23/33	287	2	2	77.7	15	0	0.49
12	@UCLA	W36-14	9.1	25/36	267	2	2	75.6	27	0	0.39
13	vsNotre Dame	W45-27	15.7	19/29	205	2	0	61.9	16	0	0.35
1	vsPenn State	W52-49	19.0	33/53	453	5	1	79.4	20	0	0.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

43.5%

Passing plays

78.6%

Rushing plays

11.3%

Standard downs

36.6%

Passing downs

59.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.72
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	USC	13.4	0.627	—	290.5
2017	USC	10.9	0.509	-0.12	301.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.