Royce Freeman is a 3-year Featured Back for Oregon. Royce's 2017 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 242 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Royce Freeman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9831
- National rank
- #34
- High school
- Imperial
- Hometown
- Imperial, CA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2017 Production
Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency25
- Volume84
- Explosiveness60
- Consistency80
- Receiving35
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Arizona (SP+ 4).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.24
- Passing downs
- 0.28
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.62 / 0.22
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.