Royce Freeman is a 3-year Explosive Back for Oregon. Royce's 2014 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 251 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Royce Freeman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9831
- National rank
- #34
- High school
- Imperial
- Hometown
- Imperial, CA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2014 Production
Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency57
- Volume69
- Explosiveness48
- Consistency79
- Receiving29
Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.
- ▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs South Dakota.
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.27
- Passing downs
- 0.36
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.85 / 0.25
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.