#2Mason Rudolph

QB·Oklahoma State·2017 2016 20158.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mason Rudolph is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Oklahoma State. Mason's 2015 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 478 plays — a average rate for the QB. Mason's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mason Rudolph's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

264/424 Comp/Att3770 Pass yards21 Pass TD9 INT62.3% Comp %

Rushing

-35 Rush yards1 Rush TD67 Carries-0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency70
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs TCU (SP+ 19).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Central Michigan	W24-13	-3.1	22/32	266	1	0	84.8	20	1	0.48
2	vsCentral Arkansas	W32-8	—	23/35	401	2	1	78.3	-7	0	0.64
3	vsUTSA	W69-14	-17.7	17/23	280	2	0	78.5	-13	0	0.47
4	@Texas	W30-27	3.7	22/34	290	1	2	52.2	-32	0	0.16
5	vsKansas State	W36-34	2.6	34/55	437	3	1	82.8	-27	0	0.43
6	@West Virginia	W33-26	12.9	20/40	218	0	3	43.9	48	0	0.15
8	vsKansas	W58-10	-21.3	20/26	305	1	0	85.8	0	0	0.52
9	@Texas Tech	W70-53	4.5	21/35	285	2	1	54.6	-1	0	0.30
10	vsTCU	W49-29	19.0	16/24	352	5	0	95.5	26	0	0.79
11	@Iowa State	W35-31	-0.3	24/36	327	1	0	88.1	12	0	0.50
12	vsBaylor	L35-45	19.5	27/50	430	3	0	56.8	-38	0	0.28
13	vsOklahoma	L23-58	22.7	0/3	0	0	1	0.0	—	—	-0.53
1	vsOle Miss	L20-48	27.0	18/31	179	0	0	40.9	-23	0	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.2%

Passing plays

82.6%

Rushing plays

8.8%

Standard downs

40.9%

Passing downs

65.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.75
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / -0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 39 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Oklahoma State	8.2	0.490	—	213.6
2016	Oklahoma State	11.6	0.534	+0.04	283.5
2017	Oklahoma State	18.4	0.655	+0.12	387.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.