#2Mason Rudolph

QB·Oklahoma State·2017 2016 201511.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Mason Rudolph is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma State. Mason's 2016 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 514 plays — a average rate for the QB. Mason's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mason Rudolph's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

284/448 Comp/Att4091 Pass yards28 Pass TD4 INT63.4% Comp %

Rushing

61 Rush yards6 Rush TD83 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat76
Consistency81
Clutch92

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Texas (SP+ 11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSE Louisiana	W61-7	—	18/25	191	2	0	70.0	-10	0	0.40
2	vsCentral Michigan	L27-30	-6.1	27/43	286	2	1	35.0	-19	0	-0.08
3	vsPittsburgh	W45-38	13.1	26/46	540	2	0	64.6	-18	0	0.47
4	@Baylor	L24-35	11.3	27/45	279	0	1	81.5	30	0	0.30
5	vsTexas	W49-31	10.6	19/28	392	3	0	89.5	2	1	0.84
6	vsIowa State	W38-31	0.7	26/44	351	4	0	67.8	1	0	0.38
8	@Kansas	W44-20	-15.9	16/24	220	1	0	57.8	-12	0	0.21
9	vsWest Virginia	W37-20	11.3	26/36	273	3	0	77.3	10	1	0.57
10	@Kansas State	W43-37	8.2	29/38	457	5	2	86.9	26	0	0.73
11	vsTexas Tech	W45-44	3.7	20/28	395	2	0	91.8	-7	1	0.62
12	@TCU	W31-6	11.0	17/34	207	1	0	64.8	23	2	0.11
14	@Oklahoma	L20-38	26.1	11/25	186	0	0	41.5	28	1	0.10
1	vsColorado	W38-8	6.3	22/32	314	3	0	87.8	7	0	0.58

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.2%

Passing plays

96.1%

Rushing plays

11.5%

Standard downs

48.3%

Passing downs

66.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 39 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Oklahoma State	8.2	0.490	—	213.6
2016	Oklahoma State	11.6	0.534	+0.04	283.5
2017	Oklahoma State	18.4	0.655	+0.12	387.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.