#23Kyren Williams

RB·Notre Dame·2021 20202.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kyren Williams is a 2-year Featured Back for Notre Dame. Kyren's 2021 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 243 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kyren Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Rushing

1002 Rush yards14 Rush TD204 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

42 Receptions359 Rec yards3 Rec TD8.5 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns29 KR yards0 KR TD14 Punt returns151 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume89
Explosiveness38
Consistency69
Receiving68

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Purdue (SP+ 10).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Florida State	W41-38	7.6	18	42	2.3	0	6	83	1	0.10
2	vsToledo	W32-29	6.9	16	78	4.9	1	3	25	0	-0.09
3	vsPurdue	W27-13	10.3	12	91	7.6	1	2	47	1	0.68
4	vsWisconsin	W41-13	20.1	18	33	1.8	0	—	—	—	-0.08
5	vsCincinnati	L13-24	21.2	13	45	3.5	1	3	19	0	-0.03
6	@Virginia Tech	W32-29	2.4	19	81	4.3	1	5	26	1	0.13
8	vsUSC	W31-16	-0.6	25	138	5.5	2	6	42	0	0.37
9	vsNorth Carolina	W44-34	6.4	22	199	9.0	1	2	15	0	0.43
10	vsNavy	W34-6	-8.5	17	95	5.6	2	7	36	0	0.19
11	@Virginia	W28-3	7.2	14	70	5.0	1	2	15	0	0.19
12	vsGeorgia Tech	W55-0	-6.7	11	56	5.1	2	4	31	0	0.35
13	@Stanford	W45-14	-10.2	19	74	3.9	2	2	20	0	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.0%

Passing plays

11.6%

Rushing plays

51.3%

Standard downs

34.2%

Passing downs

23.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.69 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Notre Dame	2.4	0.290	—	64.1
2021	Notre Dame	2.0	0.260	-0.03	57.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.