#23Kyren Williams

RB·Notre Dame·2021 20202.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kyren Williams is a 2-year Pass-Catching Back for Notre Dame. Kyren's 2020 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 242 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kyren Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

1125 Rush yards13 Rush TD211 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

35 Receptions313 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency23
Volume83
Explosiveness46
Consistency65
Receiving70

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Florida State (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsDuke	W27-13	-4.2	19	112	5.9	2	2	93	0	0.36
3	vsSouth Florida	W52-0	-11.4	10	62	6.2	0	2	10	0	0.30
6	vsFlorida State	W42-26	-4.9	19	185	9.7	2	2	11	0	0.53
7	vsLouisville	W12-7	6.5	25	127	5.1	0	1	5	0	0.05
8	@Pittsburgh	W45-3	6.0	17	38	2.2	1	3	37	0	0.06
9	@Georgia Tech	W31-13	-1.0	15	76	5.1	2	2	24	0	0.22
10	vsClemson	W47-40	26.1	23	140	6.1	3	1	-2	0	0.19
11	@Boston College	W45-31	0.9	9	37	4.1	0	4	37	0	-0.02
13	@North Carolina	W31-17	18.0	23	124	5.4	2	4	20	1	0.24
14	vsSyracuse	W45-21	-9.8	20	110	5.5	0	3	33	0	0.13
16	vsClemson	L10-34	26.1	15	50	3.3	0	3	14	0	-0.23
1	vsAlabama	L14-31	28.3	16	64	4.0	1	8	31	0	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.2%

Passing plays

11.3%

Rushing plays

43.4%

Standard downs

33.6%

Passing downs

19.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Notre Dame	2.4	0.290	—	64.1
2021	Notre Dame	2.0	0.260	-0.03	57.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.