#21Khalil Herbert

RB·Virginia Tech·20203.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Khalil Herbert is a Featured Back for Virginia Tech. Khalil's 2020 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 167 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Khalil Herbert's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

1183 Rush yards8 Rush TD155 Carries7.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

10 Receptions179 Rec yards1 Rec TD17.9 Yards/rec

Returns

16 Kick returns430 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency80
Volume72
Explosiveness92
Consistency78
Receiving41

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (80th percentile).
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.31 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.93 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs NC State (SP+ 0).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
4	vsNC State	W45-24	0.0	6	104	17.3	1	2	46	0	0.93
5	@Duke	W38-31	-4.2	20	208	10.4	2	—	—	—	0.58
6	@North Carolina	L45-56	18.0	18	138	7.7	2	—	—	—	0.50
7	vsBoston College	W40-14	0.9	18	143	7.9	0	1	29	1	0.29
8	@Wake Forest	L16-23	0.8	14	64	4.6	0	2	39	0	0.25
9	@Louisville	W42-35	6.5	21	147	7.0	1	—	—	—	0.14
10	vsLiberty	L35-38	6.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	vsMiami	L24-25	12.8	8	49	6.1	0	1	7	0	0.16
12	@Pittsburgh	L14-47	6.0	9	72	8.0	0	3	57	0	0.40
14	vsClemson	L10-45	26.1	21	96	4.6	1	1	1	0	-0.01
15	vsVirginia	W33-15	0.9	20	162	8.1	1	—	—	—	0.24

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.3%

Passing plays

5.7%

Rushing plays

36.8%

Standard downs

29.5%

Passing downs

13.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.79
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.63 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.