#32Jonathan Williams

RB·Arkansas·20142.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jonathan Williams is a Explosive Back for Arkansas. Jonathan's 2014 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 189 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jonathan Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1190 Rush yards12 Rush TD211 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions65 Rec yards2 Rec TD5.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency28
Volume71
Explosiveness52
Consistency44
Receiving30

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency44th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.53 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.33 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Nicholls.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Auburn	L21-45	24.2	7	34	4.9	1	2	-2	0	-0.12
2	vsNicholls	W73-7	—	4	143	35.8	1	—	—	—	2.33
3	@Texas Tech	W49-28	4.9	22	145	6.6	4	1	10	0	0.91
4	vsNorthern Illinois	W52-14	-0.6	15	69	4.6	1	—	—	—	—
5	vsTexas A&M	L28-35	20.2	18	95	5.3	1	—	—	—	0.10
7	vsAlabama	L13-14	34.3	20	83	4.2	1	2	9	0	0.06
8	vsGeorgia	L32-45	27.6	18	108	6.0	0	3	12	0	0.22
9	vsUAB	W45-17	-4.2	18	153	8.5	1	2	13	1	0.55
10	@Mississippi State	L10-17	22.2	15	47	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.11
12	vsLSU	W17-0	21.5	18	55	3.1	1	—	—	—	0.01
13	vsOle Miss	W30-0	20.7	20	81	4.1	0	—	—	—	-0.10
14	@Missouri	L14-21	19.3	13	72	5.5	0	1	23	1	0.27
1	vsTexas	W31-7	9.0	23	105	4.6	1	—	—	—	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.7%

Passing plays

4.1%

Rushing plays

39.4%

Standard downs

29.7%

Passing downs

15.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.