#2Jarveon Williams

RB·UTSA·20152.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jarveon Williams is a Explosive Back for UTSA. Jarveon's 2015 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 179 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jarveon Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1042 Rush yards8 Rush TD173 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions60 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.7 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns7 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency23
Volume65
Explosiveness60
Consistency53
Receiving26

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.03 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Colorado State (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Arizona	L32-42	4.7	21	79	3.8	0	—	—	—	0.00
2	vsKansas State	L3-30	2.6	10	31	3.1	0	1	4	0	-0.15
3	@Oklahoma State	L14-69	9.9	17	90	5.3	1	—	—	—	0.25
4	vsColorado State	L31-33	0.5	13	170	13.1	2	—	—	—	1.03
5	@UTEP	W25-6	-19.5	28	133	4.8	1	5	45	0	0.03
6	vsLouisiana Tech	L31-34	8.3	16	27	1.7	0	2	10	0	-0.25
7	@Southern Miss	L10-32	1.4	16	88	5.5	0	—	—	—	0.07
9	@North Texas	L23-30	-25.0	6	51	8.5	1	1	1	0	0.76
10	vsOld Dominion	L31-36	-14.8	5	24	4.8	0	—	—	—	0.04
11	@Charlotte	W30-27	-21.7	19	186	9.8	1	—	—	—	0.41
12	vsRice	W34-24	-14.6	22	163	7.4	2	—	—	—	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.7%

Passing plays

3.2%

Rushing plays

40.5%

Standard downs

28.1%

Passing downs

12.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.23
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.