#20James Butler

RB·Nevada·20152.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

James Butler is a Explosive Back for Nevada. James's 2015 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 219 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So James Butler's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1345 Rush yards10 Rush TD208 Carries6.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions44 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency23
Volume69
Explosiveness70
Consistency62
Receiving24

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.41 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Buffalo (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsUC Davis	W31-17	—	14	65	4.6	0	—	—	—	-0.07
2	vsArizona	L20-44	4.7	9	33	3.7	0	1	17	0	-0.03
3	@Texas A&M	L27-44	14.1	17	107	6.3	0	1	3	0	0.02
4	@Buffalo	W24-21	-10.3	16	177	11.1	1	—	—	—	0.41
5	vsUNLV	L17-23	-16.2	10	44	4.4	0	1	4	0	0.26
6	vsNew Mexico	W35-17	-8.7	21	145	6.9	1	1	-5	0	0.12
7	@Wyoming	L21-28	-16.7	10	51	5.1	0	—	—	—	-0.07
8	vsHawai'i	W30-20	-16.3	28	134	4.8	2	—	—	—	0.23
10	@Fresno State	W30-16	-12.6	18	122	6.8	1	2	18	0	0.20
11	vsSan José State	W37-34	-4.5	16	119	7.4	1	1	7	0	0.31
12	@Utah State	L27-31	-0.1	17	139	8.2	2	—	—	—	0.26
13	@San Diego State	L14-31	8.0	8	20	2.5	0	—	—	—	-0.18
1	vsColorado State	W28-23	0.5	24	189	7.9	2	—	—	—	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.2%

Passing plays

3.2%

Rushing plays

38.7%

Standard downs

28.9%

Passing downs

13.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.