#24Fluff Bothwell

RB·South Alabama·2024

Fluff Bothwell is a Explosive Back for South Alabama. Fluff's 2024 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 119 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Fluff Bothwell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

834 Rush yards13 Rush TD112 Carries7.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions90 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency98
Volume46
Explosiveness88
Consistency72
Receiving36

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.70 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Northwestern State.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorth Texas	L38-52	-4.5	6	30	5.0	1	1	28	0	0.71
2	@Ohio	L20-27	2.3	10	70	7.0	1	1	6	0	0.54
3	vsNorthwestern State	W87-10	—	7	143	20.4	2	—	—	—	1.70
4	@App State	W48-14	-8.1	14	116	8.3	2	—	—	—	0.62
5	@LSU	L10-42	15.9	10	17	1.7	0	2	8	0	-0.07
6	@Arkansas State	L16-18	-9.9	9	32	3.6	0	4	31	0	0.04
8	vsTroy	W25-9	-6.6	12	53	4.4	0	3	8	0	-0.01
9	vsUL Monroe	W46-17	-16.7	17	119	7.0	2	—	—	—	0.38
10	vsGeorgia Southern	L30-34	-1.7	6	31	5.2	2	—	—	—	0.55
12	@Louisiana	W24-22	4.8	9	38	4.2	0	1	9	0	0.18
13	@Southern Miss	W35-14	-25.6	6	104	17.3	1	—	—	—	1.37
14	vsTexas State	L38-45	5.4	6	81	13.5	2	—	—	—	0.68

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

16.0%

Passing plays

3.2%

Rushing plays

28.3%

Standard downs

19.3%

Passing downs

8.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.45
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.67 / 0.43

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).