#15Elijah Mitchell

RB·Louisiana·2020 2019 20182.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Elijah Mitchell is a 3-year Explosive Back for Louisiana. Elijah's 2020 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 159 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Elijah Mitchell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

878 Rush yards8 Rush TD141 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions153 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Returns

5 Kick returns82 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency55
Volume68
Explosiveness64
Consistency80
Receiving54

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.12 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -18).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	EPA/play
2	@Iowa State	W31-14	13.3	8	46	5.8	0	2	22	0.38
3	@Georgia State	W34-31	-5.7	16	164	10.3	2	2	4	0.31
7	vsCoastal Carolina	L27-30	6.6	9	39	4.3	2	1	11	0.36
8	@UAB	W24-20	6.3	21	67	3.2	0	2	18	0.04
9	@Texas State	W44-34	-13.4	17	96	5.6	0	2	14	0.14
10	vsArkansas State	W27-20	-6.5	16	90	5.6	1	1	4	0.11
11	vsSouth Alabama	W38-10	-11.3	15	61	4.1	1	1	20	0.14
13	@UL Monroe	W70-20	-18.4	8	93	11.6	1	1	-2	0.67
14	@App State	W24-21	10.3	12	95	7.9	0	2	17	0.29
1	vsUTSA	W31-24	-9.6	19	127	6.7	1	2	45	0.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.8%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

35.7%

Standard downs

26.1%

Passing downs

18.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Louisiana	3.3	0.440	—	67.3
2019	Louisiana	2.9	0.330	-0.11	70.0
2020	Louisiana	2.7	0.360	+0.03	54.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.