#15Elijah Mitchell

RB·Louisiana·2020 2019 20182.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Elijah Mitchell is a 3-year Explosive Back for Louisiana. Elijah's 2019 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 218 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Elijah Mitchell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1147 Rush yards16 Rush TD198 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

10 Receptions70 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume62
Explosiveness56
Consistency75
Receiving31

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Texas Southern.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMississippi State	L28-38	3.5	14	31	2.2	1	2	4	0	-0.06
2	vsLiberty	W35-14	-2.6	15	74	4.9	1	—	—	—	0.35
3	vsTexas Southern	W77-6	—	7	73	10.4	2	—	—	—	0.83
4	@Ohio	W45-25	3.7	17	143	8.4	3	—	—	—	0.70
5	@Georgia Southern	W37-24	-4.5	14	81	5.8	2	1	5	0	0.46
7	vsApp State	L7-17	11.3	13	68	5.2	0	2	10	0	-0.23
8	@Arkansas State	W37-20	-2.9	23	109	4.7	2	—	—	—	0.17
10	vsTexas State	W31-3	-16.2	13	126	9.7	1	1	-1	0	0.52
11	@Coastal Carolina	W48-7	-12.8	10	52	5.2	0	1	31	0	0.48
12	@South Alabama	W37-27	-20.3	17	117	6.9	1	2	20	0	0.42
13	vsTroy	W53-3	-4.4	7	31	4.4	1	—	—	—	0.33
14	vsUL Monroe	W31-30	-10.7	19	102	5.4	0	—	—	—	0.19
15	@App State	L38-45	11.3	18	85	4.7	1	1	1	1	0.25
1	vsMiami (OH)	W27-17	-9.2	11	55	5.0	1	—	—	—	0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.7%

Passing plays

3.7%

Rushing plays

35.6%

Standard downs

24.1%

Passing downs

14.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Louisiana	3.3	0.440	—	67.3
2019	Louisiana	2.9	0.330	-0.11	70.0
2020	Louisiana	2.7	0.360	+0.03	54.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.