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Donovan Hamilton
Donovan Hamilton

#1Donovan Hamilton

WR·Ball State·2025

Donovan Hamilton is a Versatile WR for Ball State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donovan Hamilton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving
20 Receptions244 Rec yards0 Rec TD12.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume21
  • Explosiveness35
  • Consistency65
  • Pass-Down15
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.79 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs New Hampshire.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Keytaon ThompsonVirginia0.3700.615.2
Micah DavisAir Force0.3700.616.3
Keytaon ThompsonVirginia0.3200.412.5
Cade HarrisAir Force0.3300.514.8
Dane KinamonAir Force0.4100.716.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.790−1.79Wk 3 vs New Hampshire: +1.79 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs UConn: +0.64 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Ohio: -0.27 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Akron: +0.10 EPA/play8Wk 11 vs Kent State: +0.50 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs Toledo: +0.95 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Miami (OH): +0.11 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
3vsNew HampshireW34-29—12121.00211.79
4@UConnL25-315.17618.70220.64
6vsOhioW20-14-4.02189.0011-0.27
8vsAkronW42-28-13.9166.0060.10
11vsKent StateW17-13-19.322713.50190.50
13@ToledoL9-386.033913.00280.95
14@Miami (OH)L24-45-3.447218.00470.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
7.4%
Passing plays
16.8%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
6.5%
Passing downs
9.3%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.47
Passing downs
0.26
Pass / Rush EPA
0.37 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.