#7Davis Webb

QB·California·201610.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Davis Webb is a Dual-Threat QB for California. Davis's 2016 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 624 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Davis Webb's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

382/620 Comp/Att4295 Pass yards37 Pass TD12 INT61.6% Comp %

Rushing

-110 Rush yards6 Rush TD33 Carries-3.3 Yards/carry

Punting

7 Punts275 Punt yards39.3 Yards/punt52 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency28
Volume100
Dual-Threat60
Consistency74
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.58 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Texas (SP+ 11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsHawai'i	W51-31	-10.1	38/54	441	4	0	80.6	-13	1	0.48
2	@San Diego State	L40-45	11.4	41/72	522	5	3	59.7	-19	0	0.11
3	vsTexas	W50-43	10.6	27/40	396	4	0	78.3	-28	1	0.58
4	@Arizona State	L41-51	-3.0	32/56	478	5	2	59.4	-21	0	0.31
5	vsUtah	W28-23	10.9	22/35	306	4	1	76.4	-12	0	0.47
6	@Oregon State	L44-47	-4.6	23/44	113	0	1	16.9	-2	1	-0.29
8	vsOregon	W52-49	6.1	42/61	325	5	0	68.8	9	1	0.35
9	@USC	L24-45	23.6	34/53	333	2	1	56.6	1	1	0.21
10	vsWashington	L27-66	26.7	23/47	262	1	3	43.7	-6	1	0.00
11	@Washington State	L21-56	6.2	34/53	425	3	1	65.9	-8	0	0.28
12	vsStanford	L31-45	16.4	34/57	393	2	0	53.8	2	0	0.37
13	vsUCLA	W36-10	9.1	32/48	301	2	0	61.4	-13	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.8%

Passing plays

99.8%

Rushing plays

5.0%

Standard downs

56.8%

Passing downs

72.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.