#33Carson Steele

RB·Ball State·20222.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Carson Steele is a Featured Back for Ball State. Carson's 2022 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 309 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Steele's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

1581 Rush yards14 Rush TD290 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions163 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Explosiveness50
Consistency50
Receiving32

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency50th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.47 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs UConn (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Tennessee	L10-59	25.2	11	27	2.5	0	4	14	0	-0.17
2	vsWestern Michigan	L30-37	-17.3	26	147	5.7	1	1	18	0	0.09
3	vsMurray State	W31-0	—	25	141	5.6	1	3	9	0	0.16
4	@Georgia Southern	L23-34	-6.4	23	119	5.2	0	1	8	0	0.01
5	vsNorthern Illinois	W44-38	-18.8	24	77	3.2	3	3	15	0	0.05
6	@Central Michigan	W17-16	-14.0	28	124	4.4	0	2	1	0	0.06
7	vsUConn	W25-21	-14.6	32	179	5.6	3	—	—	—	0.47
8	vsEastern Michigan	L16-20	-7.1	24	101	4.2	0	4	57	1	0.13
10	@Kent State	W27-20	-13.1	29	192	6.6	1	1	8	0	0.27
11	@Toledo	L21-28	-3.7	28	198	7.1	3	3	-2	0	0.17
12	vsOhio	L18-32	-4.6	14	96	6.9	0	—	—	—	-0.21
13	@Miami (OH)	L17-18	-12.7	26	180	6.9	2	6	35	0	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

35.9%

Passing plays

6.4%

Rushing plays

72.3%

Standard downs

43.5%

Passing downs

18.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.