#2Cam Fancher

QB·Marshall·2023

Cam Fancher is a Dual-Threat QB for Marshall. Cam's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 352 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cam Fancher's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

202/308 Comp/Att2162 Pass yards11 Pass TD11 INT65.6% Comp %

Rushing

273 Rush yards4 Rush TD120 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat87
Consistency81
Clutch77

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.29 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -6).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUAlbany	W21-17	—	28/35	268	1	1	34.2	16	0	0.17
2	@East Carolina	W31-13	-12.8	15/27	178	0	0	59.2	30	0	0.28
4	vsVirginia Tech	W24-17	5.8	16/27	166	1	2	43.1	14	0	0.16
5	vsOld Dominion	W41-35	-10.1	29/35	278	2	1	57.1	102	0	0.28
6	@NC State	L41-48	7.4	29/51	315	2	1	43.9	25	2	0.11
7	@Georgia State	L24-41	-6.8	27/34	301	1	0	50.6	9	0	0.33
8	vsJames Madison	L9-20	11.8	17/30	173	0	1	12.1	-66	0	—
9	@Coastal Carolina	L6-34	-1.2	11/22	125	0	2	18.2	8	0	0.40
10	@App State	L9-31	3.8	14/25	144	1	3	6.4	35	0	0.39
13	vsArkansas State	W35-21	-6.3	16/22	214	3	0	93.3	100	2	0.84

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.4%

Passing plays

87.0%

Rushing plays

27.5%

Standard downs

51.3%

Passing downs

67.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).