#22Bryant Koback

RB·Toledo·2021 20192.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Bryant Koback is a 2-year Explosive Back for Toledo. Bryant's 2019 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 199 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bryant Koback's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1187 Rush yards12 Rush TD195 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions69 Rec yards2 Rec TD8.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency50
Volume68
Explosiveness62
Consistency0
Receiving25

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.69 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Colorado State (SP+ -4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Kentucky	L24-38	9.1	15	73	4.9	1	—	—	—	0.09
3	vsMurray State	W45-0	—	13	62	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.20
4	@Colorado State	W41-35	-3.9	19	228	12.0	3	1	8	1	0.84
5	vsBYU	W28-21	1.3	23	88	3.8	1	—	—	—	-0.17
6	vsWestern Michigan	W31-24	-4.9	21	177	8.4	0	1	8	0	0.38
7	@Bowling Green	L7-20	-27.5	14	60	4.3	0	4	41	1	0.32
8	@Ball State	L14-52	-4.5	13	38	2.9	0	1	5	0	-0.24
9	vsEastern Michigan	W37-34	-8.6	32	259	8.1	2	—	—	—	0.48
11	vsKent State	W35-33	-10.2	13	67	5.2	2	1	7	0	0.65
12	vsNorthern Illinois	L28-31	-13.9	2	14	7.0	0	—	—	—	-2.89
13	@Buffalo	L30-49	-2.0	17	99	5.8	1	—	—	—	-0.04
14	@Central Michigan	L7-49	-4.4	13	22	1.7	1	—	—	—	-0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.8%

Passing plays

3.3%

Rushing plays

39.4%

Standard downs

27.3%

Passing downs

15.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2021 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Toledo	2.8	0.320	—	60.8
2021	Toledo	3.9	0.380	+0.06	80.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.