Ainias Smith

WR·Texas A&M·20200.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ainias Smith is a Versatile WR for Texas A&M. Ainias's 2020 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 116 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ainias Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

293 Rush yards4 Rush TD49 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

42 Receptions490 Rec yards6 Rec TD11.7 Yards/rec

Returns

15 Punt returns75 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency50
Volume47
Explosiveness31
Consistency74
Pass-Down49

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.02 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Arkansas (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
4	vsVanderbilt	W17-12	-16.8	2	27	13.5	0	26	-0.02
5	@Alabama	L24-52	28.3	6	123	20.5	2	47	0.65
6	vsFlorida	W41-38	19.8	3	-21	-7.0	0	30	0.03
7	@Mississippi State	W28-14	-1.4	5	20	4.0	1	9	0.07
9	vsArkansas	W42-31	1.6	6	67	11.2	1	35	1.02
10	@South Carolina	W48-3	-2.4	3	22	7.3	1	12	0.67
13	vsLSU	W20-7	6.0	3	36	12.0	0	18	-0.02
14	@Auburn	W31-20	12.6	4	62	15.5	0	38	0.60
16	@Tennessee	W34-13	0.9	4	29	7.3	1	11	0.58
1	vsNorth Carolina	W41-27	18.0	6	125	20.8	0	54	1.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

16.6%

Passing plays

19.4%

Rushing plays

14.2%

Standard downs

17.0%

Passing downs

15.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.