Bowling Green vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsGT
- Q4 1:35GTAbdul Janneh 16 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)38–27
- Q3 0:25GTMalik Rutherford 15 Yd pass from Haynes King (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q3 2:28BGSUDeshawn Jones Jr. 45 Yd Interception Return (Alan Anaya Kick)38–14
- Q3 3:13BGSUTerion Stewart 6 Yd Run (Alan Anaya Kick)31–14
- Q3 11:33BGSUConnor Bazelak 1 Yd Run (Alan Anaya Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:37BGSUFinn Hogan 14 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Alan Anaya Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:27BGSUAlan Anaya 40 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 4:16BGSUCamden Orth 1 Yd Run (Alan Anaya Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:40GTChristian Leary 11 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:43GTEric Singleton Jr. 53 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassConnor Bazelak 21/32, 263 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTerion Stewart 26 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecFinn Hogan 6 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHaynes King 23/37, 348 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushJamal Haynes 8 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecDominick Blaylock 7 REC, 131 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:33BGSU +27%
Connor Bazelak run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
- Q2 2:37BGSU +21%
Connor Bazelak pass complete to Finn Hogan for 14 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
- Q3 3:13BGSU +20%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
- Q1 4:16BGSU +8%
Camden Orth run for 1 yd for a TD (Alan Anaya KICK)
- Q1 9:40GT +8%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 11 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
- Q2 8:27BGSU +7%
Alan Anaya 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Georgia Tech?
Bowling Green 38, Georgia Tech 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 438 | Total yards | 417 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 348 |
| 175 | Rushing yards | 69 |
| 26 | First downs | 27 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/33 | Comp/Att | 23/37 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-113 | Penalties | 6-46 |
| 42:45 | Possession | 17:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:01 BGSU go for it on 4th & 15 at GT 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:35GTAbdul Janneh 16 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)38–27
- Q3 0:25GTMalik Rutherford 15 Yd pass from Haynes King (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)38–20
- Q3 2:28BGSUDeshawn Jones Jr. 45 Yd Interception Return (Alan Anaya Kick)38–14
- Q3 3:13BGSUTerion Stewart 6 Yd Run (Alan Anaya Kick)31–14
- Q3 11:33BGSUConnor Bazelak 1 Yd Run (Alan Anaya Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:37BGSUFinn Hogan 14 Yd pass from Connor Bazelak (Alan Anaya Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:27BGSUAlan Anaya 40 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 4:16BGSUCamden Orth 1 Yd Run (Alan Anaya Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:40GTChristian Leary 11 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:43GTEric Singleton Jr. 53 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1391, BGSU Elo 1195 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT -10.2 (76% to win) — 11.8 points clear of BGSU's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #6 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| BGSU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#69) | CORE overall | +0.5 (#58) |
| -2 / -1 | offense / defense | +7 / +6 |
| 2.02 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.72 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →