UC Davis vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

UC Davis

07

Oregon State1-0

▸0055

Final

Reser Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
UC D	0	0	0	7	7
ORST	14	24	10	7	55

UC DTeam statsORST

166Total yards450

119Pass181

47Rush269

12First downs23

4-143rd down5-10

2Turnovers0

28:16Possession31:44

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:06UC DC.J. Hutton 9 Yd pass from Grant Harper (Hunter Ridley Kick)7–55
• Q4 9:41ORSTAidan Chiles 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–55
• Q3 3:53ORSTRiley Sharp 10 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–48
• Q3 12:00ORSTAtticus Sappington 28 Yd Field Goal 0–41
• Q2 2:09ORSTAtticus Sappington 40 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 5:30ORSTSilas Bolden 22 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–35
• Q2 12:29ORSTSilas Bolden 65 Yd Punt Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–28
• Q2 14:54ORSTRweha Munyagi Jr. 5 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:57ORSTDJ Uiagalelei 3 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:09ORSTDamien Martinez 64 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ORST −23.5

Against the number

ORST covered

line ORST −23.5

What the numbers say

• UC D played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 4.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ORST 100%50%UC D 100%

Kickoff141 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ORST (top)UC D (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ORST −23.5

Closing total

56.5

Model line

—

Actual result

UC D 7 – 55 ORST

Leaders

UC Davis

• PassGrant Harper 4/7, 56 YDS, 1 TD
• RushLan Larison 15 CAR, 55 YDS
• RecAndre Crump Jr. 2 REC, 42 YDS

Oregon State

• PassDJ Uiagalelei 8/13, 107 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDamien Martinez 7 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
• RecSilas Bolden 4 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

123

Points / snap

0.50

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ORST up 48 entering the 4th quarter. Across 81 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ORST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Army62-0WArizona State vs Wyoming48-7WSouth Carolina State vs Delaware State69-35WTexas State vs Southern Miss58-3WFresno State vs New Mexico State48-0

Fourth downs

15 calls

UC D gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.UC D 8/9 · ORST 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of UC Davis vs. Oregon State?

UC Davis 7, Oregon State 55.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ORST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

UC D

ORST

30%

Success rate

56%

-0.22

EPA / pass

0.45

-0.06

EPA / rush

0.36

29%

Early-down success

57%

27%

Pass success

52%

35%

Rush success

58%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

35%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

57%

Pass rate

43%

9.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.9

UC D

9.7 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

ORST

4.9 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

UC D		ORST
166	Total yards	450
119	Passing yards	181
47	Rushing yards	269
12	First downs	23
4-14	3rd down	5-10
1-1	4th down	0-0
17/30	Comp/Att	17/26
4.0	Yards per pass	7.0
1.6	Yards per rush	7.3
2	Turnovers	0
4-20	Penalties	2-25
28:16	Possession	31:44

Fourth downs

15 calls

UC D

8/9 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

ORST

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q3 8:52 UC D punt on 4th & 3 at UC D 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

UC D 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 8/12 scoring drives

UC DINT6 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q1

ORSTTD1 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q1

UC DPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 32Q1

ORSTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 5Q1

UC DPUNT3 pl, -23 yds· opp 47Q1

ORSTTD4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1

UC DPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1

ORSTTD6 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

UC DTD3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

UC DPUNT6 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q2

ORSTTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2

UC DFUM3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

ORSTFG4 pl, 7 yds· opp 29Q2

UC DPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

ORSTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 35Q2

UC DEND1 pl, -5 yds· own 15Q2

ORSTFG7 pl, 30 yds· opp 40Q3

UC DPUNT7 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3

ORSTTD9 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q3

UC DPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 22Q3

ORSTTD14 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q3

UC DTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

ORSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 32Q4

UC DPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 11Q4

ORSTEND2 pl, -4 yds· opp 47Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:06UC DC.J. Hutton 9 Yd pass from Grant Harper (Hunter Ridley Kick)7–55
• Q4 9:41ORSTAidan Chiles 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–55
• Q3 3:53ORSTRiley Sharp 10 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–48
• Q3 12:00ORSTAtticus Sappington 28 Yd Field Goal 0–41
• Q2 2:09ORSTAtticus Sappington 40 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q2 5:30ORSTSilas Bolden 22 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–35
• Q2 12:29ORSTSilas Bolden 65 Yd Punt Return (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–28
• Q2 14:54ORSTRweha Munyagi Jr. 5 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:57ORSTDJ Uiagalelei 3 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:09ORSTDamien Martinez 64 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →