Wyoming vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsASU
- Q4 0:02WYOChris Durr Jr. 3 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (John Hoyland Kick)7–48
- Q3 3:34ASUKyson Brown 68 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Ian Hershey Kick)0–48
- Q3 6:07ASUJustin Wodtly 6 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Hershey Kick)0–41
- Q3 11:03ASUChamon Metayer 25 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Ian Hershey Kick)0–34
- Q2 4:28ASUIan Hershey 24 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 9:47ASUCam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–24
- Q1 0:00ASUDeCarlos Brooks 8 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:19ASUIan Hershey 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:19ASUZyrus Fiaseu 29 Yd Interception Return (Ian Hershey Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassEvan Svoboda 6/15, 42 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDJ Jones 17 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecTK King 1 REC, 23 YDS
- PassSam Leavitt 14/22, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCam Skattebo 11 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyson Brown 2 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 48 entering the 4th quarter. Across 82 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:19ASU +17%
Zyrus Fiaseu 29 Yd Interception Return (Ian Hershey Kick)
- Q1 0:00ASU +16%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
- Q2 9:47ASU +9%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
- Q1 6:19ASU +9%
Ian Hershey 29 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Arizona State?
Wyoming 7, Arizona State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WYO | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 118 | Total yards | 499 |
| 78 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 241 |
| 8 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 14/22 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 22:56 | Possession | 37:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:45 ASU punt on 4th & 14 at WYO 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:02WYOChris Durr Jr. 3 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (John Hoyland Kick)7–48
- Q3 3:34ASUKyson Brown 68 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Ian Hershey Kick)0–48
- Q3 6:07ASUJustin Wodtly 6 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Hershey Kick)0–41
- Q3 11:03ASUChamon Metayer 25 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Ian Hershey Kick)0–34
- Q2 4:28ASUIan Hershey 24 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 9:47ASUCam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–24
- Q1 0:00ASUDeCarlos Brooks 8 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:19ASUIan Hershey 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:19ASUZyrus Fiaseu 29 Yd Interception Return (Ian Hershey Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1355, WYO Elo 1496 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU +3.2 (43% to win) — 9.7 points clear of WYO's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArizona State leads 10–6 · Arizona State has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| WYO | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.4 (#123) | CORE overall | +16.5 (#19) |
| -15 / +6 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 1.50 | points / drive | 3.03 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 1.92 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →