Army vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsLSU
- Q4 0:40LSUTrey Holly 67 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–62
- Q4 4:40LSUNoah Cain 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–55
- Q3 1:48LSUDamian Ramos 32 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 9:07LSUMalik Nabers 51 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–45
- Q2 0:57LSUMalik Nabers 26 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–38
- Q2 2:19LSUDamian Ramos 35 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 9:08LSUJayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–28
- Q2 14:22LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:26LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 86 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:05LSULogan Diggs 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChamp Harris 4/9, 22 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKanye Udoh 21 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecCasey Reynolds 4 REC, 26 YDS
- PassJayden Daniels 11/15, 279 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTrey Holly 6 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrian Thomas Jr. 3 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 48 entering the 4th quarter. Across 80 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:05LSU +8%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. LSU?
Army 0, LSU 62.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| ARMY | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 193 | Total yards | 570 |
| 42 | Passing yards | 368 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 12 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 6/15 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 13.6 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 3-10 |
| 31:49 | Possession | 28:11 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:19 LSU field goal on 4th & 2 at ARMY 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:40LSUTrey Holly 67 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–62
- Q4 4:40LSUNoah Cain 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–55
- Q3 1:48LSUDamian Ramos 32 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 9:07LSUMalik Nabers 51 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–45
- Q2 0:57LSUMalik Nabers 26 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–38
- Q2 2:19LSUDamian Ramos 35 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 9:08LSUJayden Daniels 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–28
- Q2 14:22LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 8 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:26LSUBrian Thomas Jr. 86 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:05LSULogan Diggs 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1809, ARMY Elo 1444 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -17 (87% to win) — 16.0 points clear of ARMY's market line of -33. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARMY | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 (#111) | CORE overall | +21.8 (#10) |
| -7 / +9 | offense / defense | +31 / +10 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 3.86 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -25 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →