Louisiana vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsRICE
- Q4 2:59RICEAri Broussard 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–33
- Q4 9:17ULChris Smith 22 Yd Run (Preston Stafford Kick)21–27
- Q4 11:25RICELuke McCaffrey 6 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (TJ McMahon Pass to Bradley Rozner for Two-Point Conversion)14–27
- Q3 10:20RICEBradley Rozner 12 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–19
- Q2 0:01RICEChristian VanSickle 31 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q2 1:24ULTerrence Williams 11 Yd pass from Chandler Fields (Preston Stafford Kick)14–10
- Q2 5:20RICELuke McCaffrey 8 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:47ULCaleb Anderson 54 Yd Interception Return (Preston Stafford Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:17RICEChristian VanSickle 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassBen Wooldridge 6/14, 76 YDS
- RushChris Smith 6 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Jefferson 5 REC, 53 YDS
- PassTJ McMahon 25/36, 303 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushAri Broussard 19 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLuke McCaffrey 10 REC, 105 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:25RICE +42%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner
- Q4 11:25RICE +24%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Bradley Rozner
- Q2 2:52RICE +16%
TJ McMahon pass intercepted
- Q4 9:17UL +13%
Chris Smith 22 Yd Run (Preston Stafford Kick)
- Q4 0:00RICE +13%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Pearse Migl for 13 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:00RICE +10%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Rice?
Louisiana 21, Rice 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | Total yards | 449 |
| 114 | Passing yards | 303 |
| 61 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 9 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/28 | Comp/Att | 25/36 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 11-85 | Penalties | 9-65 |
| 18:09 | Possession | 41:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:59 RICE punt on 4th & 12 at UL 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:59RICEAri Broussard 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–33
- Q4 9:17ULChris Smith 22 Yd Run (Preston Stafford Kick)21–27
- Q4 11:25RICELuke McCaffrey 6 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (TJ McMahon Pass to Bradley Rozner for Two-Point Conversion)14–27
- Q3 10:20RICEBradley Rozner 12 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–19
- Q2 0:01RICEChristian VanSickle 31 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q2 1:24ULTerrence Williams 11 Yd pass from Chandler Fields (Preston Stafford Kick)14–10
- Q2 5:20RICELuke McCaffrey 8 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:47ULCaleb Anderson 54 Yd Interception Return (Preston Stafford Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:17RICEChristian VanSickle 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1120, UL Elo 1755 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +23 (8% to win) — 11.5 points clear of UL's market line of +11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #49 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| UL | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.4 (#81) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#117) |
| -4 / +0 | offense / defense | -5 / +12 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.76 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 2.95 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →