Bowling Green vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsTOL
- Q4 0:09BGSUTa'ron Keith 42 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Matt McDonald Pass to Ta'ron Keith for Two-Point Conversion)42–35
- Q4 0:51TOLTucker Gleason 1 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)34–35
- Q4 5:09TOLJerjuan Newton 3 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Thomas Cluckey Kick)34–28
- Q4 9:20BGSUOdieu Hiliare 59 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)34–21
- Q4 10:23TOLJamal Turner 2 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Thomas Cluckey Kick)27–21
- Q3 5:31BGSUMason Lawler 35 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 13:37BGSUMason Lawler 39 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 1:26TOLMicah Kelly 4 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Thomas Cluckey Kick)21–14
- Q2 6:20TOLTucker Gleason 5 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:00BGSUPatrick Day 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Mason Lawler Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:50BGSUAndrew Bench 3 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:41BGSUOdieu Hiliare 25 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassMatt McDonald 20/36, 395 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaison Patterson 15 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecOJ Hiliare 8 REC, 246 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTucker Gleason 22/40, 329 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushTucker Gleason 17 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDemeer Blankumsee 3 REC, 79 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:51TOL +92%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
- Q4 0:47BGSU +50%
Matt McDonald sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 23
- Q4 0:09BGSU +38%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt McDonald pass to Ta'ron Keith for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 9:20BGSU +24%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 59 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)
- Q2 1:26TOL +24%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Micah Kelly for 4 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
- Q4 10:23TOL +23%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Toledo?
Bowling Green 42, Toledo 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 482 |
| 395 | Passing yards | 329 |
| 61 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 14 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 4-4 |
| 20/36 | Comp/Att | 22/40 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 12-110 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 28:09 | Possession | 31:51 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:55 BGSU punt on 4th & 3 at BGSU 9. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.06 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:09BGSUTa'ron Keith 42 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Matt McDonald Pass to Ta'ron Keith for Two-Point Conversion)42–35
- Q4 0:51TOLTucker Gleason 1 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)34–35
- Q4 5:09TOLJerjuan Newton 3 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Thomas Cluckey Kick)34–28
- Q4 9:20BGSUOdieu Hiliare 59 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)34–21
- Q4 10:23TOLJamal Turner 2 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Thomas Cluckey Kick)27–21
- Q3 5:31BGSUMason Lawler 35 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q3 13:37BGSUMason Lawler 39 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 1:26TOLMicah Kelly 4 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Thomas Cluckey Kick)21–14
- Q2 6:20TOLTucker Gleason 5 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:00BGSUPatrick Day 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Mason Lawler Kick)21–0
- Q1 2:50BGSUAndrew Bench 3 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:41BGSUOdieu Hiliare 25 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1549, BGSU Elo 1096 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -20.5 (90% to win) — 6.0 points clear of TOL's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #27 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Toledo leads 33–30–1 · Bowling Green has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| BGSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.2 (#106) | CORE overall | +5.5 (#44) |
| -6 / +6 | offense / defense | -1 / -6 |
| 1.46 | points / drive | 2.30 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →