Baylor vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsTTU
- Q4 0:45BAYQualan Jones 17 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)45–17
- Q4 4:04BAYAJ McCarty 18 Yd Interception Return (John Mayers Kick)38–17
- Q4 12:46BAYRichard Reese 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)31–17
- Q3 2:46TTUBehren Morton 8 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)24–17
- Q3 7:34TTUHenry Teeter 1 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Trey Wolff Kick)24–10
- Q3 11:09BAYHal Presley 9 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:13BAYRichard Reese 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)17–3
- Q2 3:39BAYRichard Reese 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)10–3
- Q2 8:09TTUTrey Wolff 33 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:39BAYJohn Mayers 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Shapen 19/30, 211 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRichard Reese 36 CAR, 148 YDS, 3 TD
- RecGavin Holmes 5 REC, 77 YDS
- PassBehren Morton 11/34, 152 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushTahj Brooks 16 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecXavier White 2 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:39BAY +21%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
- Q3 2:46TTU +17%
Behren Morton run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
- Q2 0:13BAY +14%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
- Q4 12:46BAY +11%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
- Q2 8:09TTU +9%
Trey Wolff 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 4:39BAY +9%
John Mayers 48 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Texas Tech?
Baylor 45, Texas Tech 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.
| BAY | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 442 | Total yards | 308 |
| 211 | Passing yards | 159 |
| 231 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 27 | First downs | 23 |
| 12-20 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 12/38 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4-46 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 40:17 | Possession | 19:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:42 BAY punt on 4th & 3 at BAY 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:45BAYQualan Jones 17 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)45–17
- Q4 4:04BAYAJ McCarty 18 Yd Interception Return (John Mayers Kick)38–17
- Q4 12:46BAYRichard Reese 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)31–17
- Q3 2:46TTUBehren Morton 8 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)24–17
- Q3 7:34TTUHenry Teeter 1 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Trey Wolff Kick)24–10
- Q3 11:09BAYHal Presley 9 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:13BAYRichard Reese 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)17–3
- Q2 3:39BAYRichard Reese 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)10–3
- Q2 8:09TTUTrey Wolff 33 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 4:39BAYJohn Mayers 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1626, BAY Elo 1724 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU +1.5 (47% to win) — 3.0 points clear of BAY's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#27 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #108 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Baylor leads 42–40–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| BAY | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#58) | CORE overall | +4.3 (#53) |
| +2 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / -6 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 2.24 |
| 2.53 | allowed / drive | 2.28 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →