Michigan vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsOSU
- Q4 3:16MICHJoe Milton 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)39–62
- Q4 5:26OSUParris Campbell 16 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)32–62
- Q4 6:59OSUK.J. Hill 1 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)32–55
- Q4 9:35MICHBen Mason 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)32–48
- Q4 13:55OSUParris Campbell 78 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)25–48
- Q4 14:11MICHNico Collins 12 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–41
- Q3 3:10OSUMike Weber 2 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick)19–41
- Q3 4:41OSUSevyn Banks 33 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Haubeil Kick)19–34
- Q3 8:25OSUBlake Haubeil 19 Yd Field Goal 19–27
- Q2 0:00OSUBlake Haubeil 19 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q2 0:41MICHChris Evans 9 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–21
- Q2 0:47MICHNico Collins 23 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick)13–21
- Q2 3:18OSUJohnnie Dixon 31 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)6–21
- Q2 9:08OSUChris Olave 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)6–14
- Q2 14:51MICHJake Moody 31 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 6:22MICHJake Moody 39 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:29OSUChris Olave 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassShea Patterson 20/34, 187 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaran Higdon 15 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecNico Collins 4 REC, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDwayne Haskins 20/31, 396 YDS, 6 TD
- RushMike Weber 13 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecParris Campbell 6 REC, 192 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:08OSU +21%
Chris Olave 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)
- Q2 0:41MICH +20%
Chris Evans 9 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q3 4:41OSU +19%
Sevyn Banks 33 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Haubeil Kick)
- Q1 11:29OSU +18%
Chris Olave 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)
- Q2 0:47MICH +17%
Nico Collins 23 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick)
- Q2 0:00OSU +16%
Blake Haubeil 19 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Ohio State?
Michigan 39, Ohio State 62.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 567 |
| 240 | Passing yards | 396 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 171 |
| 28 | First downs | 28 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 20/31 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-72 | Penalties | 12-150 |
| 35:24 | Possession | 24:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 OSU field goal on 4th & 1 at MICH 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:16MICHJoe Milton 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)39–62
- Q4 5:26OSUParris Campbell 16 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)32–62
- Q4 6:59OSUK.J. Hill 1 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)32–55
- Q4 9:35MICHBen Mason 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)32–48
- Q4 13:55OSUParris Campbell 78 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)25–48
- Q4 14:11MICHNico Collins 12 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–41
- Q3 3:10OSUMike Weber 2 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick)19–41
- Q3 4:41OSUSevyn Banks 33 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Blake Haubeil Kick)19–34
- Q3 8:25OSUBlake Haubeil 19 Yd Field Goal 19–27
- Q2 0:00OSUBlake Haubeil 19 Yd Field Goal 19–24
- Q2 0:41MICHChris Evans 9 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–21
- Q2 0:47MICHNico Collins 23 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick)13–21
- Q2 3:18OSUJohnnie Dixon 31 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)6–21
- Q2 9:08OSUChris Olave 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)6–14
- Q2 14:51MICHJake Moody 31 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 6:22MICHJake Moody 39 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 11:29OSUChris Olave 24 Yd pass from Dwayne Haskins (Blake Haubeil Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 1926, MICH Elo 2035 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU +2 (46% to win) — 2.5 points clear of OSU's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #87 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #56 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Michigan leads 62–53–6 · 39% have been one-possession games
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +24.6 (#6) | CORE overall | +19.0 (#10) |
| +9 / -15 | offense / defense | +15 / -4 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 2.94 |
| 1.20 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →