#22Karan Higdon

RB·Michigan·2018 20171.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Karan Higdon is a 2-year Featured Back for Michigan. Karan's 2018 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 231 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Karan Higdon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1180 Rush yards10 Rush TD225 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions43 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume85
Explosiveness44
Consistency37
Receiving22

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency37th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Western Michigan (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Notre Dame	L17-24	20.7	21	72	3.4	1	—	—	—	-0.07
2	vsWestern Michigan	W49-3	-10.7	13	156	12.0	1	—	—	—	0.68
4	vsNebraska	W56-10	5.4	12	136	11.3	1	1	7	0	0.30
5	@Northwestern	W20-17	1.9	30	115	3.8	2	1	9	0	0.04
6	vsMaryland	W42-21	3.0	25	103	4.1	0	—	—	—	-0.07
7	vsWisconsin	W38-13	15.5	19	105	5.5	1	1	15	0	0.24
8	@Michigan State	W21-7	11.5	33	144	4.4	0	1	0	0	-0.04
10	vsPenn State	W42-7	19.0	20	132	6.6	1	1	5	0	0.23
11	@Rutgers	W42-7	-12.3	15	42	2.8	2	—	—	—	-0.14
12	vsIndiana	W31-20	1.6	21	101	4.8	1	1	6	0	0.21
13	@Ohio State	L39-62	24.1	15	72	4.8	0	1	1	0	-0.05
1	vsFlorida	L15-41	23.0	1	2	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.7%

Passing plays

3.6%

Rushing plays

48.4%

Standard downs

34.3%

Passing downs

18.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: -0.06
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.05 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Michigan	3.5	0.390	—	67.5
2018	Michigan	1.8	0.240	-0.15	55.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.