Utah State vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 0:59USUJusten Hervey 7 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)52–28
- Q4 10:53USUDominik Eberle 24 Yd Field Goal 45–28
- Q4 14:15USULaJuan Hunt 30 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)42–28
- Q3 6:38USUJordan Love 5 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)35–28
- Q2 2:28USULaJuan Hunt 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)28–28
- Q2 5:54USUJordan Nathan 75 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)21–28
- Q2 6:05UNLVArmani Rogers 7 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)14–28
- Q2 12:51USULaJuan Hunt 13 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:58UNLVLexington Thomas 41 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:56USUSavon Scarver 70 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:32UNLVArmani Rogers 6 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:49UNLVLexington Thomas 14 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJordan Love 19/27, 316 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLaJuan Hunt 16 CAR, 101 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJordan Nathan 3 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKurt Palandech 8/18, 48 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLexington Thomas 19 CAR, 161 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDarren Woods Jr. 4 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:38USU +25%
Jordan Love run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
- Q2 2:28USU +22%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
- Q4 14:15USU +21%
LaJuan Hunt run for 30 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
- Q1 6:49UNLV +19%
Lexington Thomas run for 14 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
- Q2 5:54USU +18%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 75 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
- Q2 6:05UNLV +16%
Armani Rogers run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. UNLV?
Utah State 52, UNLV 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| USU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 588 | Total yards | 460 |
| 323 | Passing yards | 85 |
| 265 | Rushing yards | 375 |
| 25 | First downs | 25 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 13/30 |
| 11.1 | Yards per pass | 2.8 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 24:25 | Possession | 35:35 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:14 USU punt on 4th & 3 at USU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:59USUJusten Hervey 7 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)52–28
- Q4 10:53USUDominik Eberle 24 Yd Field Goal 45–28
- Q4 14:15USULaJuan Hunt 30 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)42–28
- Q3 6:38USUJordan Love 5 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)35–28
- Q2 2:28USULaJuan Hunt 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)28–28
- Q2 5:54USUJordan Nathan 75 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)21–28
- Q2 6:05UNLVArmani Rogers 7 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)14–28
- Q2 12:51USULaJuan Hunt 13 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:58UNLVLexington Thomas 41 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:56USUSavon Scarver 70 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:32UNLVArmani Rogers 6 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:49UNLVLexington Thomas 14 Yd Run (Daniel Gutierrez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1310, USU Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV +0.8 (49% to win) — 4.3 points clear of USU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #87 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Utah State leads 18–10 · UNLV has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| USU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.0 (#91) | CORE overall | -17.2 (#113) |
| -8 / -0 | offense / defense | -1 / +17 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.43 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →