Tulane vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsFIU
- Q4 5:30FIUJose Borregales 39 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q4 13:07FIUShawndarrius Phillips 3 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)10–20
- Q3 5:25TULNDontrell Hilliard 12 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)10–13
- Q3 8:55FIUJose Borregales 42 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 7:49FIUJose Borregales 22 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 14:08TULNMerek Glover 35 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 3:04FIUPharoah McKever 12 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TULN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJonathan Banks 5/16, 36 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDontrell Hilliard 12 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJabril Clewis 1 REC, 25 YDS
- PassAlex McGough 17/31, 220 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAlex Gardner 20 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecThomas Owens 6 REC, 152 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:07FIU +30%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q3 5:25TULN +25%
Dontrell Hilliard run for 12 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
- Q1 3:04FIU +19%
Alex McGough pass complete to Pharoah McKever for 12 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q3 8:55FIU +14%
Jose Borregales 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 15:00FIU +14%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 7 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST down
- Q2 7:49FIU +12%
Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Florida International?
Tulane 10, Florida International 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 239 | Total yards | 438 |
| 36 | Passing yards | 220 |
| 203 | Rushing yards | 218 |
| 18 | First downs | 23 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 5/16 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 2.3 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 11-105 |
| 23:10 | Possession | 36:50 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:07 TULN punt on 4th & 2 at TULN 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:30FIUJose Borregales 39 Yd Field Goal 10–23
- Q4 13:07FIUShawndarrius Phillips 3 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)10–20
- Q3 5:25TULNDontrell Hilliard 12 Yd Run (Merek Glover Kick)10–13
- Q3 8:55FIUJose Borregales 42 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 7:49FIUJose Borregales 22 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 14:08TULNMerek Glover 35 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 3:04FIUPharoah McKever 12 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1133, TULN Elo 1422 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +9.2 (28% to win) — 3.8 points clear of FIU's market line of +13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #26 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| TULN | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.0 (#90) | CORE overall | -14.1 (#106) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | -2 / +12 |
| 2.36 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.87 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -16 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →