Oklahoma vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsCLEM
- Q4 10:48CLEMWayne Gallman 4 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)17–37
- Q3 4:07CLEMHunter Renfrow 35 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick)17–30
- Q3 10:51CLEMWayne Gallman 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)17–23
- Q2 1:34OUMark Andrews 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)17–16
- Q2 2:17CLEMGreg Huegel 43 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 4:41OUAustin Seibert 22 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:05CLEMGreg Huegel 36 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 12:45CLEMDeshaun Watson 5 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:45CLEMGreg Huegel 26 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:16OUSamaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CLEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassBaker Mayfield 26/41, 311 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushSamaje Perine 15 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSterling Shepard 7 REC, 87 YDS
- PassDeshaun Watson 16/31, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayne Gallman 26 CAR, 150 YDS, 2 TD
- RecArtavis Scott 5 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:51CLEM +26%
Wayne Gallman 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)
- Q2 1:34OU +23%
Mark Andrews 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)
- Q3 4:07CLEM +21%
Hunter Renfrow 35 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick)
- Q2 12:45CLEM +19%
Deshaun Watson 5 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)
- Q1 11:16OU +14%
Samaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)
- Q2 2:17CLEM +10%
Greg Huegel 43 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Clemson?
Oklahoma 17, Clemson 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 530 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 312 |
| 24 | First downs | 30 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 9-19 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 26/43 | Comp/Att | 17/32 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-65 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 24:45 | Possession | 35:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:12 CLEM punt on 4th & 1 at CLEM 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:48CLEMWayne Gallman 4 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)17–37
- Q3 4:07CLEMHunter Renfrow 35 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick)17–30
- Q3 10:51CLEMWayne Gallman 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)17–23
- Q2 1:34OUMark Andrews 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)17–16
- Q2 2:17CLEMGreg Huegel 43 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 4:41OUAustin Seibert 22 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:05CLEMGreg Huegel 36 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 12:45CLEMDeshaun Watson 5 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:45CLEMGreg Huegel 26 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:16OUSamaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 1965, OU Elo 2155 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CLEM +7.6 (32% to win) — 4.6 points clear of OU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #89 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| OU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.2 (#3) | CORE overall | +38.0 (#1) |
| +13 / -14 | offense / defense | +18 / -20 |
| 3.15 | points / drive | 2.79 |
| 1.51 | allowed / drive | 1.45 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →