Air Force vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 0:11BOISTyler Rausa 45 Yd Field Goal 37–30
- Q4 2:11AFLuke Strebel 45 Yd Field Goal 37–27
- Q4 5:35BOISThomas Stuart 2 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)34–27
- Q3 0:53BOISThomas Sperbeck 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)34–20
- Q3 8:27AFLuke Strebel 32 Yd Field Goal 34–13
- Q3 13:18AFGarrett Griffin 51 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)31–13
- Q2 2:34AFTimothy McVey 48 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)24–13
- Q2 6:42AFJalen Robinette 67 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)17–13
- Q2 14:15AFKarson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)10–13
- Q1 0:56BOISTyler Rausa 45 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q1 6:50AFLuke Strebel 18 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 13:40BOISTyler Rausa 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:45BOISJeremy McNichols 83 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassKarson Roberts 9/16, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJacobi Owens 20 CAR, 145 YDS
- RecGarrett Griffin 3 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrett Rypien 23/48, 237 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJeremy McNichols 20 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecThomas Sperbeck 7 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:42AF +24%
Jalen Robinette 67 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)
- Q2 2:34AF +23%
Timothy McVey 48 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)
- Q3 13:18AF +16%
Garrett Griffin 51 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)
- Q4 5:25AF +14%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the AFA 26
- Q4 5:35BOIS +14%
Thomas Stuart 2 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)
- Q2 14:15AF +13%
Karson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Boise State?
Air Force 37, Boise State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AF | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 607 | Total yards | 378 |
| 279 | Passing yards | 237 |
| 328 | Rushing yards | 141 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-21 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 23/48 |
| 17.4 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-58 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 32:03 | Possession | 27:57 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:50 AF field goal on 4th & 1 at BOIS 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:11BOISTyler Rausa 45 Yd Field Goal 37–30
- Q4 2:11AFLuke Strebel 45 Yd Field Goal 37–27
- Q4 5:35BOISThomas Stuart 2 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)34–27
- Q3 0:53BOISThomas Sperbeck 34 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Tyler Rausa Kick)34–20
- Q3 8:27AFLuke Strebel 32 Yd Field Goal 34–13
- Q3 13:18AFGarrett Griffin 51 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)31–13
- Q2 2:34AFTimothy McVey 48 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)24–13
- Q2 6:42AFJalen Robinette 67 Yd pass from Karson Roberts (Luke Strebel Kick)17–13
- Q2 14:15AFKarson Roberts 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)10–13
- Q1 0:56BOISTyler Rausa 45 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q1 6:50AFLuke Strebel 18 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 13:40BOISTyler Rausa 37 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:45BOISJeremy McNichols 83 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1752, AF Elo 1598 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -8.6 (72% to win) — 3.4 points clear of AF's market line of -12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #13 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Boise State leads 9–4 · Boise State has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| AF | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#59) | CORE overall | +8.5 (#39) |
| +3 / +0 | offense / defense | +1 / -8 |
| 2.68 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.24 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →