Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsVT
- Q4 2:12VANEli Stowers 9 Yd pass from Blaze Berlowitz (Brock Taylor Kick)44–20
- Q4 6:05VANSedrick Alexander 6 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)37–20
- Q4 10:13VANSedrick Alexander 18 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)30–20
- Q3 0:24VANTre Richardson 26 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor PAT failed)23–20
- Q3 8:02VANMakhilyn Young 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)17–20
- Q2 0:00VTJohn Love 27 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 4:19VANBrock Taylor 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 11:10VTKyron Drones 1 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:51VANBrycen Coleman 54 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:06VTJa'Ricous Hairston 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:11VTJohn Love 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- VAN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and VT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.7
- PassDiego Pavia 12/18, 193 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMakhilyn Young 8 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrycen Coleman 1 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyron Drones 17/29, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKyron Drones 13 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTucker Holloway 2 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:11VT +10%
John Love 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech?
Vanderbilt 44, Virginia Tech 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VAN | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 490 | Total yards | 248 |
| 228 | Passing yards | 134 |
| 262 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 23 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-7 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/20 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-77 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 32:12 | Possession | 27:48 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:50 VT punt on 4th & 1 at VT 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:12VANEli Stowers 9 Yd pass from Blaze Berlowitz (Brock Taylor Kick)44–20
- Q4 6:05VANSedrick Alexander 6 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)37–20
- Q4 10:13VANSedrick Alexander 18 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)30–20
- Q3 0:24VANTre Richardson 26 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor PAT failed)23–20
- Q3 8:02VANMakhilyn Young 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)17–20
- Q2 0:00VTJohn Love 27 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 4:19VANBrock Taylor 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 11:10VTKyron Drones 1 Yd Run (John Love Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:51VANBrycen Coleman 54 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:06VTJa'Ricous Hairston 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Love Kick)0–10
- Q1 7:11VTJohn Love 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1575, VAN Elo 1497 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -5.5 (65% to win) — 3.5 points clear of VT's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #106 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 6–5 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| VAN | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.4 (#8) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| +28 / +2 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 3.85 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →