Lane StadiumClosing line: VT -2 · VAN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 44 |
| VT | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Team stats
VANthis game · better side highlightedVT
490
Total yards
248228
Passing yards
134262
Rushing yards
11423
First downs
165-7 · 71%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
VT 1575
VAN 1497
Projected spread
VT -5.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
VT
66% to win
Market spread
VT -2
sportsbook line
Model edge
VT
3.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
66%
VT · market 36%
Our model blends Elo ratings (VT Elo 1575, VAN Elo 1497) plus home-field advantage. That projects VT -5.5 (66% to win) — 3.5 points of value on VT versus the market line of -2.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
VT (top)VAN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VT 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- VT pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. VAN pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge VAN.
- VAN rush offense (0.35 PPA) vs. VT rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge VAN.
- VT rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. VAN rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge VT.
Drive-by-drive
VAN 7/10 scoring drives← own end zone →VT 4/10 scoring drives
VTFG15 pl, 64 yds· own 25Q1
VANINT5 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
VTTD8 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
VAN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
VAN went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Virginia Tech?
Vanderbilt 44, Virginia Tech 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had VT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.