Aggie Memorial StadiumConference gameClosing line: SHSU +-2 · NMSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| NMSU | 0 | 10 | 3 | 24 | 37 |
Team stats
SHSUthis game · better side highlightedNMSU
313
Total yards
350244
Passing yards
25569
Rushing yards
9518
First downs
203-13 · 23%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1147
SHSU 1243
Projected spread
NMSU +1.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
SHSU
54% to win
Market spread
NMSU +2
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
46%
NMSU · market 47%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NMSU Elo 1147, SHSU Elo 1243) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +1.4 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)SHSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge NMSU.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
Drive-by-drive
SHSU 3/9 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 6/9 scoring drives
SHSUMISS12 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q1
NMSUFUM12 pl, 57 yds· own 38Q1
SHSUPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 4Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
NMSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. New Mexico State?
Sam Houston 10, New Mexico State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SHSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SHSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.