Brooks Stadium (SC)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 10 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
| CCU | 3 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 44 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CCU 1235
MRSH 1583
Projected spread
CCU +11.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
MRSH
80% to win
Market spread
CCU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
MRSH
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
20%
CCU · market 32%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1235, MRSH Elo 1583) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU +11.5 (20% to win) — 4.5 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CCU (top)MRSH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CCU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. MRSH pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MRSH.
- MRSH rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
- MRSH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge MRSH.
Drive-by-drive
MRSH 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →CCU 9/17 scoring drives
CCUTD5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
CCUFG8 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CCU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
CCU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina?
Marshall 27, Coastal Carolina 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.