Thu, Oct 30, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 10 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
| CCU | 3 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 44 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1235, MRSH Elo 1583) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU +11.5 (20% to win) — 4.5 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +7.
CCU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Marshall 27, Coastal Carolina 44.
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Boogie Trotter 51 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
Malcolm Gillie 69 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)
End of 1st quarter.
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