Northwestern State vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northwestern State
Tulsa
▸Final
Chapman Stadium
NORTTeam statsTLSA
226Total yards622
112Pass299
114Rush323
12First downs31
3-123rd down9-13
0Turnovers1
28:30Possession31:30
- Q4 4:30TLSACardell Williams 22 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)28–62
- Q4 10:29NORTChance Newman 4 Yd Run (Reed Honshtein Kick)28–55
- Q4 14:28TLSALloyd Avant 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Seth Morgan Kick)21–55
- Q4 14:39NORTMyles Kitt-Denton 12 Yd pass from Quaterius Hawkins (Reed Honshtein Kick)21–48
- Q3 11:22TLSABraylin Presley 19 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)14–48
- Q2 0:37TLSAConnor Vaughn 14 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)14–41
- Q2 4:16TLSAConnor Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)14–34
- Q2 7:45TLSAAnthony Watkins 33 Yd Run (Seth Morgan PAT failed)14–27
- Q2 12:34TLSAJeremiah Ballard 29 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:06NORTAntonio Hall 74 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Reed Honshtein Kick)14–14
- Q1 7:19TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 66 Yd Punt Return (Seth Morgan Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:40TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 36 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:13NORTKennieth Lacy 75 Yd Run (Reed Honshtein Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
TLSA −37.5
Against the number
NORT covered
line TLSA −37.5
What the numbers say
- NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TLSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.3 vs 3rd & 7.1
Kickoff144 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
TLSA (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TLSA 100%
Closing line
TLSA −37.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 28 – 62 TLSA
Northwestern State
- PassQuaterius Hawkins 4/5, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKennieth Lacy 7 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAmaaz Eugene 2 REC, 34 YDS
Tulsa
- PassKirk Francis 23/30, 299 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLloyd Avant 11 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecZion Steptoe 5 REC, 88 YDS
28.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
127
Points / snap
0.71
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TLSA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern State vs. Tulsa?
Northwestern State 28, Tulsa 62.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TLSA) was correct.
NORT
TLSA
34%
Success rate
53%
0.39
EPA / pass
0.79
0.25
EPA / rush
0.47
38%
Early-down success
50%
29%
Pass success
50%
38%
Rush success
55%
9%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
23%
22%
Stuffed rush rate
2%
40%
Pass rate
43%
11.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.1
NORT
11.3 yards to go on 3rd down
53 scrimmage snaps
TLSA
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
74 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 226 | Total yards | 622 |
| 112 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 114 | Rushing yards | 323 |
| 12 | First downs | 31 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/19 | Comp/Att | 23/30 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 7.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 28:30 | Possession | 31:30 |
NORT
7/8 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
TLSA
5/5 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q3 8:34 NORT punt on 4th & 4 at TLSA 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →TLSA 8/11 scoring drives
NORTTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
TLSAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 23Q1
TLSATD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
NORTTD4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, -13 yds· own 25Q1
TLSATD8 pl, 28 yds· opp 42Q1
TLSATD9 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
NORTPUNT7 pl, 4 yds· own 16Q2
TLSATD2 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q2
TLSATD5 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 35Q2
TLSATD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
NORTEND1 pl, -4 yds· own 14Q2
TLSATD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
NORTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 35Q3
TLSADOWNS10 pl, 51 yds· own 5Q3
NORTPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 44Q3
NORTTD2 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q4
NORTTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q4
TLSATD10 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4
TLSAEND4 pl, 52 yds· own 15Q4
- Q4 4:30TLSACardell Williams 22 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)28–62
- Q4 10:29NORTChance Newman 4 Yd Run (Reed Honshtein Kick)28–55
- Q4 14:28TLSALloyd Avant 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Seth Morgan Kick)21–55
- Q4 14:39NORTMyles Kitt-Denton 12 Yd pass from Quaterius Hawkins (Reed Honshtein Kick)21–48
- Q3 11:22TLSABraylin Presley 19 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)14–48
- Q2 0:37TLSAConnor Vaughn 14 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)14–41
- Q2 4:16TLSAConnor Vaughn 20 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)14–34
- Q2 7:45TLSAAnthony Watkins 33 Yd Run (Seth Morgan PAT failed)14–27
- Q2 12:34TLSAJeremiah Ballard 29 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:06NORTAntonio Hall 74 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Reed Honshtein Kick)14–14
- Q1 7:19TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 66 Yd Punt Return (Seth Morgan Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:40TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 36 Yd pass from Kirk Francis (Seth Morgan Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:13NORTKennieth Lacy 75 Yd Run (Reed Honshtein Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →