Indiana vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IUTeam statsMD
- Q4 0:25IUAndison Coby 16 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Chris Freeman Kick)17–44
- Q4 6:54MDKaden Prather 14 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)10–44
- Q4 11:07IUDonaven McCulley 11 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Chris Freeman Kick)10–37
- Q3 7:08MDDylan Wade 3 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)3–37
- Q3 11:23MDJack Howes 44 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q2 0:36MDTai Felton 9 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes PAT failed)3–27
- Q1 2:43MDTaulia Tagovailoa 19 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)3–21
- Q1 5:34MDTai Felton 29 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)3–14
- Q1 9:54IUChris Freeman 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 14:35MDTai Felton 13 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTayven Jackson 17/29, 113 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChristian Turner 15 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecDonaven McCulley 6 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTaulia Tagovailoa 24/34, 352 YDS, 5 TD
- RushRoman Hemby 14 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecTai Felton 7 REC, 134 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 344 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:35MD +10%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q1 5:34MD +9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 29 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Maryland?
Indiana 17, Maryland 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MD) was correct.
| IU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Total yards | 472 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 352 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 120 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 5-11 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/41 | Comp/Att | 24/34 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 4-15 |
| 38:04 | Possession | 21:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:27 IU go for it on 4th & 9 at IU 24. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:25IUAndison Coby 16 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Chris Freeman Kick)17–44
- Q4 6:54MDKaden Prather 14 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)10–44
- Q4 11:07IUDonaven McCulley 11 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Chris Freeman Kick)10–37
- Q3 7:08MDDylan Wade 3 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)3–37
- Q3 11:23MDJack Howes 44 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q2 0:36MDTai Felton 9 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes PAT failed)3–27
- Q1 2:43MDTaulia Tagovailoa 19 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)3–21
- Q1 5:34MDTai Felton 29 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)3–14
- Q1 9:54IUChris Freeman 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 14:35MDTai Felton 13 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1687, IU Elo 1397 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -14 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIndiana leads 9–5 · Indiana has won 2 straight · 57% have been one-possession games
| IU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.1 (#96) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#17) |
| -2 / +7 | offense / defense | +8 / -9 |
| 1.60 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.65 | allowed / drive | 2.03 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →