#3Taulia Tagovailoa

QB·Maryland·2023 2022 20217.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Taulia Tagovailoa is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Maryland. Taulia's 2023 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 469 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taulia Tagovailoa's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

290/437 Comp/Att3377 Pass yards25 Pass TD11 INT66.4% Comp %

Rushing

18 Rush yards5 Rush TD68 Carries0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat48
Consistency84
Clutch80

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Indiana (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTowson	W38-6	—	22/33	260	3	0	86.3	28	1	0.47
2	vsCharlotte	W38-20	-21.4	25/36	287	1	2	42.5	-5	0	0.42
3	vsVirginia	W42-14	-10.8	19/30	342	1	0	79.5	-7	0	0.50
4	@Michigan State	W31-9	-6.8	21/36	223	3	1	78.6	37	1	0.35
5	vsIndiana	W44-17	-7.4	24/34	352	5	0	95.0	15	1	0.79
6	@Ohio State	L17-37	25.2	21/41	196	1	2	67.2	21	1	0.13
7	vsIllinois	L24-27	-2.5	27/39	266	2	0	72.1	-6	0	0.20
9	@Northwestern	L27-33	-1.3	30/47	274	3	1	43.3	1	0	0.06
10	vsPenn State	L15-51	23.5	29/39	286	2	1	80.3	-47	0	0.15
11	@Nebraska	W13-10	0.3	27/40	283	1	1	79.6	27	0	0.42
12	vsMichigan	L24-31	31.3	21/31	247	0	2	50.2	-43	0	0.33
13	@Rutgers	W42-24	3.5	24/31	361	3	1	96.0	-3	1	0.55

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.7%

Passing plays

96.7%

Rushing plays

14.4%

Standard downs

54.6%

Passing downs

77.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2023 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Maryland	7.0	0.471	—	250.9
2022	Maryland	5.8	0.416	-0.05	206.5
2023	Maryland	7.5	0.493	+0.08	234.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.