#3Taulia Tagovailoa

QB·Maryland·2023 2022 20215.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Taulia Tagovailoa is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Maryland. Taulia's 2022 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 452 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taulia Tagovailoa's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

262/391 Comp/Att3008 Pass yards18 Pass TD8 INT67.0% Comp %

Rushing

64 Rush yards4 Rush TD87 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency69
Clutch57

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Charlotte (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBuffalo	W31-10	-9.2	24/34	290	0	1	55.7	-3	0	0.46
2	@Charlotte	W56-21	-16.4	27/31	391	4	1	96.2	6	1	0.98
3	vsSMU	W34-27	4.7	17/23	214	2	0	68.9	51	0	0.26
4	@Michigan	L27-34	32.0	20/30	207	1	2	80.4	20	0	0.14
5	vsMichigan State	W27-13	1.2	32/41	314	1	0	80.8	18	0	0.41
6	vsPurdue	L29-31	7.7	26/38	315	3	1	67.5	-4	1	0.44
7	@Indiana	W38-33	-7.1	25/39	270	2	0	69.7	-11	1	0.39
10	@Wisconsin	L10-23	8.3	10/23	77	1	1	12.9	19	0	0.02
11	@Penn State	L0-30	22.4	11/22	74	0	0	7.6	-45	0	-0.38
12	vsOhio State	L30-43	31.1	26/36	293	2	0	91.3	12	1	0.51
13	vsRutgers	W37-0	-9.1	25/37	342	1	0	77.4	-2	0	0.23
1	vsNC State	W16-12	6.8	19/37	221	1	2	—	3	0	0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.5%

Passing plays

92.2%

Rushing plays

15.4%

Standard downs

50.1%

Passing downs

69.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.37
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2023 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Maryland	7.0	0.471	—	250.9
2022	Maryland	5.8	0.416	-0.05	206.5
2023	Maryland	7.5	0.493	+0.08	234.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.