Stony Brook vs. Villanova: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Stony Brook0-1

0013

Villanova0-1

▸0048

Final

Villanova StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
STON	7	0	0	6	13
VILL	14	20	7	7	48

STONTeam statsVILL

294Total yards556

198Pass398

96Rush158

18First downs18

7-163rd down5-9

1Turnovers1

35:12Possession24:48

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00STONJayden Cook 13 Yd pass from Daron Bryden 13–48
• Q4 13:38VILLIsaiah Wright 2 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–48
• Q3 6:13VILLJaylan Sanchez 24 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–41
• Q2 1:11VILLRayjuon Pringle 76 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio PAT blocked)7–34
• Q2 8:28VILLJalen Jackson 44 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–28
• Q2 10:59VILLJaaron Hayek 20 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–21
• Q1 2:43VILLJaaron Hayek 43 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:44STONDez Williams 12 Yd pass from Casey Case (Enda Kirby Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:36VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 5 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

VILL −27.5

Against the number

VILL covered

line VILL −27.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

VILL 100%50%STON 100%

Kickoff138 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

VILL (top)STON (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: VILL 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

VILL −27.5

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

STON 13 – 48 VILL

Leaders

Stony Brook

• PassCasey Case 12/22, 113 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushRoland Dempster 12 CAR, 55 YDS
• RecAnthony Johnson 11 REC, 90 YDS

Villanova

• PassConnor Watkins 13/19, 361 YDS, 4 TD
• RushJalen Jackson 8 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
• RecRayjuon Pringle 5 REC, 196 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

118

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

VILL up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

VILL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTexas A&M vs UL Monroe47-3WMaryland vs Indiana44-17WOklahoma vs Temple51-3WTulsa vs Northwestern State62-28WUSC vs Utah State48-0

Fourth downs

13 calls

STON gave up 2.5 points to the model on fourth down.STON 6/9 · VILL 3/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. Villanova?

Stony Brook 13, Villanova 48.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (VILL) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

STON

VILL

38%

Success rate

51%

0.10

EPA / pass

1.43

0.04

EPA / rush

0.29

36%

Early-down success

51%

37%

Pass success

58%

39%

Rush success

44%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

22%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

4%

59%

Pass rate

49%

6.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

STON

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

VILL

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

49 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

STON		VILL
294	Total yards	556
198	Passing yards	398
96	Rushing yards	158
18	First downs	18
7-16	3rd down	5-9
0-0	4th down	0-1
22/37	Comp/Att	17/23
5.4	Yards per pass	17.3
3.2	Yards per rush	6.1
1	Turnovers	1
7-38	Penalties	3-24
35:12	Possession	24:48

Fourth downs

13 calls

STON

6/9 with the model

−2.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

VILL

3/4 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 6:08 STON punt on 4th & 3 at VILL 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

STON 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →VILL 7/11 scoring drives

VILLDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

STONMISS7 pl, 17 yds· opp 34Q1

VILLTD2 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

STONTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

VILLTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

STONPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1

VILLTD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1

STONPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 15Q2

VILLTD2 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2

STONPUNT8 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

STONINT2 pl, -2 yds· opp 10Q2

VILLTD3 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q2

STONEND2 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2

STONPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

VILLPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 40Q3

STONPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 2Q3

VILLTD7 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3

STONPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3

VILLTD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

STONPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q4

VILLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 14Q4

STONPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 43Q4

VILLPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q4

STONTD11 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:00STONJayden Cook 13 Yd pass from Daron Bryden 13–48
• Q4 13:38VILLIsaiah Wright 2 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–48
• Q3 6:13VILLJaylan Sanchez 24 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–41
• Q2 1:11VILLRayjuon Pringle 76 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio PAT blocked)7–34
• Q2 8:28VILLJalen Jackson 44 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–28
• Q2 10:59VILLJaaron Hayek 20 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–21
• Q1 2:43VILLJaaron Hayek 43 Yd pass from Connor Watkins (Matthew Mercurio Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:44STONDez Williams 12 Yd pass from Casey Case (Enda Kirby Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:36VILLTD Ayo-Durojaiye 5 Yd Run (Matthew Mercurio Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →