#18Kirk Francis

QB·Tulsa·2025

Kirk Francis is a Dual-Threat QB for Tulsa. Kirk's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 96 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kirk Francis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

53/88 Comp/Att493 Pass yards3 Pass TD4 INT60.2% Comp %

Rushing

1 Rush yards0 Rush TD9 Carries0.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat55
Consistency55
Clutch65

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Abilene Christian.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	vsAbilene Christian	W35-7	—	20/31	218	2	0	53.6	2	0.48
2	@New Mexico State	L14-21	-15.5	13/23	100	0	1	16.2	-4	-0.10
6	@Memphis	L7-45	7.6	20/34	175	1	3	44.9	3	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

42.6%

Passing plays

82.2%

Rushing plays

5.7%

Standard downs

37.4%

Passing downs

53.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).